Investiční bankovnictví (Komerční banka)
Currencies  |  February 11, 2013 19:36:00

Czech crown at the beginning of the week without any significant changes (11.2.2013)

Czech koruna against the euro on Monday blamed first loss when reason was lower than expected inflation. But later erased its losses and in the evening is traded at around 25.25 CZK / EUR (highest interbank trade according to Reuters, was held at 25.30 CZK / EUR). The only currency in the region, which saw a slight loss, the Polish zloty. The Hungarian forint is then traded without significant changes.
January inflation confirmed negative demand pressures in the economy, when retailers were unable to move higher VAT on consumers, except for regulated items and food.Annual consumer inflation slowed sharply in January to 1.9% from December's 2.4%, which was below our estimate and consensus of the market. Price growth for the first time since September 2011 come under two percent CNB's inflation target, but still remains within the tolerance band / - 1 percentage point around this goal. View of the data, however, shows mom classic figure in January, when there is traditionally regulated price growth. Compared to last December, consumer prices rose by 1.3%. The reason was to increase VAT by 1 percentage point in both rates, the financial impact on the monthly inflation reached 0.82 percentage points according to the CSO.
Adjusted prices (excluding the accounting impact of tax changes, inflation in the consumer basket without regulated items, food and fuel), seasonally adjusted decreased by 0.46% m / m, whichindicates a significant decline in margins due to changes in VAT (sales tax or projected change in the final price of only 44%). We originally counted on a much higher leakage, as margins were already ince price developments in recent years, relatively tightened. From the perspective of the CNB is a downside data when headline inflation in January found 0.1 percentage points under the new CNB forecast. Important for CNB will still GDP data on Thursday. When even the surprises down, probably will return to the scene need further monetary easing (through the exchange rate).
Tomorrow you will see from the domestic economy still current account in December, when the market expects a deficit of 13 billion CZK. According to our estimates should end up in a current account deficit of 19 billion CZK (CZK -2.7 billion y / y).Annual expect deterioration in the balance of services and in particular the balance of income. Over the past year should the current account balance recorded an improvement of CZK 24 billion through the balance of goods (CZK 52 billion y / y).
The Ministry of Finance announced in March plans to issue a total of 4 bonds together for 9 to 18 billion CZK (reopening bonds VAR / 23; 1.50% / 19, 4.70% / 0.50% 22 and / 16).

Author: Jiri Skop

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