Investiční bankovnictví (Komerční banka)
Currencies  |  February 12, 2013 16:38:00

December current account is not successful, the entire year 2012 yes

Trading with the Czech crown during Tuesday's session was relatively quiet. Domestic currency against the European interbank market fluctuated between eleven cents. Euro to the crown during the session progressively more expensive and most expensive trade took place at the end of the day for 25,365 crowns.

Although the crown on the balance of payments data today too did not respond, the statistics for it was not at all favorable. The current account deficit resulted in 24.30 billion CZK, which was even more than the most pessimistic estimate our market. The main disappointment was concentrated in the income balance. Throughout the past year then ended in passive current account balance of CZK 90.3 billion, which is, however, less than CZK 20 billion less than in 2011. In relation to GDP, the current account deficit předloňských decreased from 2.8% to 2.3%. The annual improvement in the current account was initiated only trade balance, which showed a 20 billionCZK higher surplus than in 2011. Other items recorded against předloňskému of deterioration. Positive trends in the current account deficit should continue this year. Primarily due to foreign trade, we expect a further increase in the surplus for this year there is quite a good chance that it will be the first time since 1993, recorded a current account surplus (according to our estimate of 0.1% of GDP). What's more, a surplus of around 0.8% of GDP should end and the resumption of capital account inflows of EU funds. Significant surplus of 3.8% of GDP is expected for the financial account. Foreign direct investment inflows, we expect almost CZK 100 billion, even though about 85% of it will be reinvested profits. For portfolio investment probably will see again issuance of government bonds on foreign markets in EUR 2 billion.

Swap yield curve today grew along its curve of about 4-5 points when followed development of its European counterpart. Also, bond yields have gone up, but the rise was not as dramatic.

Author: Miroslav Frayer

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