Investiční bankovnictví (Komerční banka)
Commodities  |  February 13, 2013 16:41:00

Tomorrow we will see GDP in the last quarter of 2012


Wednesday's trading was quiet again in the region and we have not seen or disclosure of any macroeconomic indicators. Exchange rate against the euro yesterday as well as strengthening its slightly corrected from last week, when the Czech currency depreciated during the day more than one-third percent. Portion of their losses, but it gradually reversed and afternoon trading around the level of 35.36 CZK / EUR, then only one tenth of a percent weaker against yesterday's value. Other regional currencies strengthened vice versa. Forint passed the first successful sale of Hungarian bonds on foreign markets since 2011 and the rate of HUF / EUR is thus shifted by about two tenths percent. Zloty has now become the most successful currency in the region, when he scored a half percent.

Tomorrow will be published preliminary estimate dynamics of Czech GDP for the last quarter of last year. This should, according to our estimates, in the last quarter of the year fall by 0.1% QoQ (-1.4% yoy). A slight positive contribution to the dynamics of quarter we expect household consumption. Pronounced drop in contrast is seen in fixed investment. Another positive contribution should occur for net exports, but this will be offset by negative developments in inventories. In terms of added value offers decreased apparently in industry and agriculture, services and construction contrary, according to our estimates, contributed positively. Today, however, we see only a preliminary estimate without structure. Market consensus is more pessimistic than our estimate of when the product projected to decline by 0.3% q / q (-1.7% yoy).CNB expects the same decline in GDP as we do - any disappointment could again force central bankers to comments against the crown.

Data for GDP, we will see in Hungary, where, according to Bloomberg expected to decline by 0.3% QoQ (-1.9% y / y).

Swap yield curve today grew along its curve by about 4 basis points, she followed her movement euro counterpart.

Author: Marek Dřímal

Tyto zprávy pro vás vytváří Investiční bankovnictví KB.
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Zítra se dočkáme HDP za poslední čtvrtletí roku 2012

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