Investiční bankovnictví (Komerční banka)
Commodities  |  February 14, 2013 16:29:00

Czech economy remained in recession in the end of last year

Today, the Czech currency against the euro traded in a narrow range from 25.33 to 25.42 CZK / EUR. At the end of the day, then even attributed modest gains. Trading does not significantly affect the publication of GDP for Q4 12th

Czech GDP in Q4 12 according to preliminary CSO estimate decreased by 0.2% q / q (-1.7% y / y). Unfortunately, the structure and specification numbers will be known to 11 March, now we have only general comments from the CSO. We can say that our data for the fourth quarter of surprise. Our estimates point to a decline of 0.1% QoQ, but the worse the December data from the real economy to the risk of downward pointing. Comparison qoq and yoy dynamics shows that the previous quarter was probably slightly revised for the worse. However it is with the final details may still change.For all of last year, the economy is outraged by the preliminary estimate of 1.1%.

Trading on regional currencies was lively. The Hungarian forint weakened by 0.7% after the publication of GDP for Q4 12, the January inflation and industrial production for December. For the rest of the day was quoted around 292.5 HUF / EUR. Gross domestic product seen deep slump by 0.9% q / q (market -0.3%). In annual terms there was a drop of 2.7%. It follows that the recession in Hungary lasts and continues to deepen. The January CPI inflation decelerated from 5.0% in December y / y to 3.7% y / y. December's industrial production fell by 3.4% yoy, as were the previous month. It is therefore a data which apparently forces the central bank to further ease monetary policy.

Today Polish zloty depreciated by 0.6% and in the afternoon trading at around 4,175 PLN / EUR. This development could occur as a result of statements central bank Governor Marek Belka. He stated that the expected break cycles of monetary easing in March is not clear, and thus suggesting that a rate cut might occur already at the next meeting. For the weakening of the zloty could become even worse than expected German GDP growth for Q4 12th

Tomorrow will be the domestic economy posted no macroeconomic indicators. The region will see the Polish consumer inflation, which should keep the regional trend and decelerate from 2.4% in December to 2.0%.

Czech swap curve today at 2-year swaps fell by 2 bb, the 10-year fell by 3 bp.

Author: Jana Malíčková

Tyto zprávy pro vás vytváří Investiční bankovnictví KB.
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