World markets  |  February 14, 2013 19:29:30

We are seeing a large rotation? / BIG EXPERT - foreign markets: from the 11th week Second 2,013


The last days are the tide poorer macroeconomic data and those that came out, did not bring any major surprises in either direction. Greater importance would probably receive season ending result, were it somehow deviated from the current course. That did not happen. Numbers in terms of profits and sales are satisfactory, substantially also because of very high expectations of analysts before it begins. On the other hand, is the fact that gains were driven primarily financial industry, the results tend to be less stable over time.

Is back on the tapis fiscal cliff in the U.S. or Europe's problems, it was only a matter of time. And because U.S. policymakers at the very end of the problem moved a full two months, who had bet on Europe, won. Spanish Prime Minister and other members of the Popular Party is facing charges of bribery and tax fraud. Although it is actually the continuation of a much older corruption scandal, which is still a clear acknowledgment conclusion opposition swirling scandals understandably seeks to exploit. The second state, which entered the markets attention was Italy. The epicenter of events found itself the world's oldest bank Monte dei Paschi (please note: again), whose scandals with preferences move ahead of the upcoming parliamentary elections in the country. It is therefore not surprising that the stagnation of U.S. equity indices at the end of the month was accompanied by adjustments in Europe.For example, the Euro STOXX 50 index gave the current 4% gain from the beginning of the year and the gap between America and Europe opened up again significantly. Indeed, only the return of the S & P 500 back on a growth path in Europe to prevent a deeper downturn. Anyway, now the index meets sheer humiliation 3% to historic highs.

Among investors, there is no consensus about the future direction of stocks. They grow without any major correction in basically the middle of last year, and many are led to believe that the risks are unbalanced, and recommend to sell. What is unquestionable, however, is the fact that aggressive ECB action to stop the process of gradually spreading decay EMU. Avert disintegration of the entire banking system, and thus eliminating extremely negative scenarios, rightfully led to a decline in risk aversion. Second factor, we are likely to see now.Although last year stock indexes rose broadly and many have ascribed significantly above average profits for 2012 can best be described primarily as a year bonds. Clear policy of zero interest rates across the developed world led to a sharp fall in bond yields, a very strong business fundamentals, gradually improving the sentiment in the markets and especially huge excess liquidity provided by central banks significantly depressed the risk premium. This is materialized in the growth of bond prices and a large inflow of money into bond funds. Falling yields to maturity then pushed investors in lower-rated bonds, possibly longer maturities - ie to greater risk. This year, however, the general outlook for bonds less optimistic last year and this year certainly will not be repeated.While firms remain healthy, low cost of debt management is to motivate taking loans and shareholders again invoke increasing dividend payments and share buyback volume. In Europe, we are witnessing download excess liquidity. A year has passed since the first round of a three-year refinancing operation (LTRO for short), the second round was at the end of February 2012, and the banks, which last year came to the ECB for money "for a rainy day" and then did not use them, is now returning. On the European money market, so we are in the last weeks trend reversal witnessed the decline of short rates. Also growing calls from some Fed governors on the gradual reduction of purchases and exit from quantitative easing policy, which pushes up the risk-free rate.On the one hand remained very limited potential interest income against which stands a real risk that the little will be absorbed by the possible increase in risk-free income. For this reason, many investors position in bonds rather limited (or planning to do so) and to favor stocks this year, where he remained some potential. In fact, even the current view of the global economic recovery in the second half of the year is favorable for stocks. The market, therefore, we find numerous supporters camp theory that we are witnessing the so-called Great rotation from bonds into equities. And the latest data on the inflow and outflow of money from the funds they give her yet proven right.

Patrick Hudec, Generali PPF Asset Management,
fund manager společnost

Expert opinions on the future development in selected foreign markets monitored through indices and comparison with the Czech capital market (PX) in the next month and a half, a week from 11 Second 2013th


Experts estimate for the period of one month

Pointer
Hodn.
8th Second
Diameter
Median
Change
in%
Interval
Growth
Decrease
PX
994.43
1 014,60
1,010
^ 2.03
1006 - 1030
5
0
Dow Jones (U.S.)
13 992,97
13 947,80
13950
ˇ -0.32
13800 - 14088
2
3
NASDAQ (U.S.)
3 193,87
3 180,80
3,200
ˇ -0.41
3 150 - 3203
3
2
FTSE 100 (UK)
6 263,90
6 288,40
6,289
^ 0.39
6250 - 6353
3
2
DAX (Germany)
7 652,14
7 689,00
7,708
^ 0.48
7580 - 7737
4
1
Nikkei 225 (JPN)
11 153,16
11 221,40
11150
^ 0.61
11 050 - 11 500
2
3


Experts estimate for the period of 6 months

Pointer
Hodn.
8th Second
Diameter
Median
Change
in%
Interval
Growth
Decrease
PX
994.43
1 024,20
1,029
^ 2.99
980-1 060
4
1
Dow Jones (U.S.)
13 992,97
14 036,80
14200
^ 0.31
13200 - 14438
4
1
NASDAQ (U.S.)
3 193,87
3 228,40
3,250
^1.08
3 100 - 3300
4
1
FTSE 100 (UK)
6 263,90
6 362,00
6,399
^ 1.57
6150 - 6511
4
1
DAX (Germany)
7 652,14
7 747,20
7,900
^ 1.24
7150 - 7980
4
1
Nikkei 225 (JPN)
11 153,16
11 368,60
11412
^ 1.93
10900 - 11831
4
1

Rating this week performed:

  • Menčík Thomas, George Šimara - CYRRUS
  • Libor Bucek, Jan Mach, Milan Nedbálek - FINANCE Zlín
  • Patrick Hudec - Generali PPF Asset Management, a fund manager společnost
  • Karel Handbag, Miroslav Hlavoň - CAPITAL GRANT
  • Jaroslav Brychta - X-Trade Brokers

The tables contain a summary of the estimates of experts in the list. The column "Actual value" represents the value of the monitored indices (Friday's closing value), from which experts in their estimates came out. With this value, the estimates of experts after a period of one to six months, compared to evaluate success. "Median" is a number that is in the middle the size of a structured set of estimates and "Interval Estimates" lists the minimum and maximum estimate file. Columns "Increase / Decrease" indicate the number of experts assume that the index of the period under consideration, given the current value rises or falls.
Note: Estimates are in the form of non-binding opinions with regard to the expected development in the next one month and a half year. The fact, however, may substantially differ from the estimates of experts. Experts even Kurzy.czassume no responsibility for these differences.

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