Vladimír Urbánek (Kurzy.cz)
Macroeconomics  |  February 15, 2013 09:24:46

CNB Inflation Report released I/2013


§          Headline inflation will be this year, despite the significant impact of tax changes to be close CNB's 2% target, the aftermath of the impact of taxation falls slightly below the target.

§          Relevant inflation will be around the outlook, including the monetary policy horizon, move the lower half of the target.

§          Czech economy this year will fall by 0.3% due to continued tight fiscal policy and slowly recovering external demand. In 2014, the economy will grow by about 2%.  

§          The nominal exchange rate against the euro will very gradually strengthen the level of
25.5 CZK / EUR expected for the first quarter of the 2013th

§          Consistent with the forecast is a slight decline in market interest rates and their subsequent growth from the mid-2014.

§          In comparison with the previous forecast has more anti-inflationary domestic economy,
It is, however, in terms of outlook for inflation and interest rates offset the expected weaker koruna.

The Bank Board of the Czech National Bank at its meeting on 14th Second 2013 approved the year's first Inflation Report.This report is an essential part of the central bank's communication with the public in the inflation targeting regime. Main part of the Inflation Report is a description of the CNB's quarterly macroeconomic forecast. This is a key input for decisions on monetary policy. The purpose of the publication of forecasts and the assumptions of making monetary policy as transparent, comprehensible, predictable and therefore credible. Inflation Report presents CNB twice a year to the Chamber of Deputies of the Czech Republic.

Forecast described in Section II of this report predicts that overall inflation this year will be close to the 2% target and after the impact of an increase in both VAT rates by 1 percentage point at the beginning of 2014 reduced slightly below target. Relevant inflation will be around the outlook, including the monetary policy horizon, move the lower half of the target. The current anti-inflationary effect of the domestic economy will persist until mid-2014.

Czech economy this year will fall by 0.3% due to continued fiscal consolidation
in terms of a gradual recovery in external demand. To restore the   Economic growth should occur in 2014, when the forecast expects about 2% GDP growth due to robust growth in foreign demand and significantly less restrictive domestic fiscal policy.

On the labor market this development of economic activity reflected a slight decline in total employment and rise in unemployment. Throughout this year, wage growth will remain in the business sector is low and mainly reflects the decline of the Czech economy.Slightly faster in 2014 with a significant recovery in economic activity. Wages in the public sector will grow due to fiscal consolidation over the outlook slow pace.

The nominal exchange rate against the euro will very gradually strengthen from the level of 25.5 CZK / EUR expected for the first quarter of 2013th forecast is consistent with the slight decline in market interest rates and their subsequent growth from the mid-2014.In terms of the interest rate path compared with the previous forecast is more anti-inflationary effect of the domestic economy in the coming quarters more than offset by a weaker view of the exchange rate and to a lesser extent, an increase in the forecast of regulated prices.

·                      The full text of the Inflation Report (pdf, 4.9 MB)

·                  Tables and graphs of the Inflation Report in xls format

·                 Current CNB forecast

Marek Petruš
Communications Director and spokesman for CNB

Selected macroeconomic indicators

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%, Y., Real, seasonally. Adjusted

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%, Y., Fourth quarter

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1.5

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1.5

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7.6

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-103.5

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-2.7

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48.2

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195.0

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-1.3

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20.0

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25.3

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0.4

 

2,013

2,014

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT

 

 

Gross domestic product (GDP)
GDP

-0.3

2.1

PRICES

 

 

Consumer prices

2.3

1.8

Relevant inflation

%, Y., Fourth quarter

1.6

LABOUR MARKET

 

The average monthly wage in monitored organizations

%, Y., Nominally

2.6

Registered unemployment rate, total (MLSA)

%, Average

8.0

PUBLIC FINANCE

 

General government balance (ESA 95)

CZK, current prices

-99.8

General government balance / GDP

%, Nominally

-2.5

Public debt / GDP

%, Nominally

49.6

EXTERNAL RELATIONS

 

Balance of Trade

CZK, current prices

225.0

Current account balance / GDP

%, Nominally

-0.9

CZK / USD

diameter

20.2

CZK / EUR

diameter

25.0

INTEREST RATES

 

3M PRIBOR

%, Average

0.5

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Notes to editors:

Czech National Bank is the central bank of the Czech Republic and the supervisor of the financial market. The main objective of the CNB is to maintain price stability. CNB determines monetary policy, issues banknotes and coins, manages cash flow, payments and clearing banks, supervises the banking sector, capital market, insurance, pension funds, credit unions, electronic money institutions, consumer protection and foreign exchange supervision. As the State Bank CNB maintains accounts and makes payments and other banking services to the state and the public sector. CNB is based in Prague, Bohemia, Hradec Kralove, Brno, Ostrava, Czech Budejovice and Usti nad Labem.

Department CNB communication, e-mail: media@cnb.cz

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