Investiční bankovnictví (Komerční banka)
World markets  |  February 18, 2013 08:24:00

Common currency could once again support the leading indicators from Europe

The euro against the dollar over the past week, moved in the range from 1.33 to 1.35. Even so, it ended with a slightly weaker levels than a week earlier. During the last week, were not disclosed any events that would significantly affect events on the financial markets. Negative reaction in the markets but triggered preliminary data on GDP in European countries, which reminded us that the situation is not always rosy.

This week will be published in a number of leading indicators. In the last month we have had many positive surprises that helped the January and optimism in the markets. Even new series should encourage sentiment toward the future. On Tuesday, the German ZEW index will start, followed by Wednesday's confidence indicators from France and Thursday's European PMI indices and the week will finish Ifo index from Germany.The data should show further improvement, although not as dramatic as in January. If we see positive data can be expected during the week pressures on strengthening the European currency. On the other hand, however, will have investors wary of Italian weekend elections. Sylvia threat to return to the post of Prime Minister Berlusconi's definitely not ignored, even though the last survey, which could be published last two weeks before the election, the winner did not fit him. Anyway concerns raised its growing popularity in the last few weeks and will continue to depend primarily on the undecided voters.

Across the pond will be markets in the United States today closed for presidential day.During the week we will see the leading indicator of housing (NAHB), which should rise to 7 years maximum, and other indicators of the real estate market, which should be broadly in line with the scenario of gradual recovery. At the same time we should wait and U.S. PMI index, which should thus improved to 57 points. He thus located in the zone of expansion and at a significantly higher level than his colleague from Europe, which indicates better shape economic activity in the world's largest economy in comparison to the old continent.

The conclusions of the G20 are clear in that regard that the finance ministers and central bank governors opposed the currency war, and promised not to support the competitiveness of their countries to devalue their own currencies.The direct criticism of Japan, whose currency is significantly weakened in recent weeks in connection with a relaxed monetary policy occurred. Representatives also postponed plans to set new goals for reducing state debt, which indicated concerns about the current state of the world economy.

Overall, as the euro could get some support during the week. In high profits but it will limit the forthcoming elections in Italy. If they are released at the same time surprisingly good data from the United States, declining speculation on further quantitative easing by the Fed will support the U.S. dollar, which will also limit euro gains.

Author: Miroslav Frayer

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