HighSky (HighSky)
Currencies  |  February 19, 2013 11:02:00

Crown has been the best for me?


When comparing the long-term development of the Czech koruna and the U.S. dollar, we see that in the last five years, the crown found direction in a slightly appreciating trend channel. Long is already time we reached the rekordům 14.50, escalated when the mortgage crisis in the U.S., and he was forever cursed by the U.S. dollar. Together with přehoupnutím the problems mainly to Europe in linking our currency came under pressure from retailers back when we are in the last five-year period have seen a return to levels above 23 crowns per dollar.

eurusd, daily comment

In the last year, however, we like the currency pair narrowed the space between the top of the long-term channel resistance and lower the 100-day average of the equilibrium, which acted as the main support for the third time in a row.It is a fact that our currency tends to weaken when leaving investors from risky assets. Therefore, should start in the coming days or weeks equity markets weaken, feedback resistant targets in the upper line may be in the medium term once again in place. Break below 100-MA would in turn negate this scenario, which would likely mean that not only the U.S. Dow Jones index would gradually sought new and new historical highs. This scenario, however, prefer the medium term less.

Josef Kvarda, HighSky Brokers, Inc.

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