Investiční bankovnictví (Komerční banka)
World markets  |  February 20, 2013 08:20:00

Euro gains are limited so far due to the forthcoming elections in Italy

Euro during yesterday's session received support from the German ZEW index, which surprised higher than estimated growth in your expectations. Thanks to the positive sentiment in the equity and bond markets to get a pointer to its three-year maximum. The good news is also that the recent strengthening of European currencies on investor sentiment significantly unimpaired. If we look, however, the evaluation component of the current situation, we can not definitely be optimistic. She has shown a decline, suggesting that the forthcoming weeks and months will probably not too positive. At the same time it will also depend on the extent to which leading indicators friendly (Thursday will be released from the Eurozone PMI indices and Friday, the German Ifo index) will ultimately be reflected in the real data.Warning may be yesterday's registrations of new cars in the euro area, which got a record low, when in January fell by 14.2% y / y.

Euro on Tuesday solidified against the dollar by more than half a percent, and during today's Asian trading, hovering around the border 1,342 USD / EUR. Further gains are limited but the upcoming elections in Italy, the results could be happening in the financial markets significantly affected.

Today we will see in the euro area business confidence in France. The figure should not have sounded so positive as in the case of Germany. After January significant drop should stabilize in February, but this is still indicative of low activity in the manufacturing sector, particularly in the automotive industry.In Germany, consumer prices will be published in January, the harmonized index should record monthly decline of 0.7% yoy dynamics and deceleration to 1.9% from December's 2.0%.

On the other side of the Atlantic will see the numbers from the U.S. real estate market. Number commenced construction and building permits should amount to between 4.5 years maximum, mainly due to an unusually mild winter temperatures. That would be a further indication of recovery in this sector of the economy. Interesting is also the minutes of the last Fed meeting, which we could indicate the time frame for completion of the program of asset purchases. Our main scenario envisages completion until the end of the year, but there is a risk that it could happen even sooner than later.

Author: Miroslav Frayer

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