Investiční bankovnictví (Komerční banka)
World markets  |  February 21, 2013 08:36:00

Euro slightly weaker in the center

Euro at the center initially expanded Tuesday its profits and added to the $ 1.3434 / €. Around noon, however, began to lose, and in the evening the USD / EUR found near 1.3350 level, which was below the opening level. During the day, losing even more risky assets, such as European equities write off 0.8%. At night, the euro continued to lose if the dollar helped the minutes of the last Fed meeting. Some central bankers because they think that the U.S. central bank should stop buying, or at least reduce the amount of bond purchases before they will boost employment. However, the registration is also seen as central bankers split on that topic (if it is to fulfill the objective of employment or when the costs begin to outweigh the benefits of this program of asset purchases).
From the published data in the EMU is worth mentioning the French business confidence, which in February improved by 3 points to 90 points. This is another forward-looking indicator, which pleasantly surprised upwards (like on Tuesday, the German ZEW index). Today will be published other similar indicators. PMI in the EMU would, according to our colleagues at the SG had improved from 48.6 points to 49.1 points, while growth is expected in the sub-index of the industry and services. German industrial PMI could be improved from 49.8 points to 51.2 points, which should be given to the expansion zone. Growth is also expected French industrial index, but this should still remain deep in the contraction zone. The forward-looking index has positively improved mood in the equity and bond markets.We will see, however, whether these negatively reflected strong euro (previously it was not).
In the U.S. we have had relatively good data from the real estate market, which confirm the revival of the local real estate sector (newly commenced construction and building permits). Today will be published even existing real estate sales for January, which is expected to decline by 0.8% MoM. More interesting, however, will PMI indicators for February (here, our colleagues from SG sees further improvement from 55.8 points to 57.0 points) and the index of industrial neighborhood of Philadelphia, which in February had to get into positive territory. Will there be any data on consumer inflation in February and new applications for unemployment benefits.
If you are filled with predictions of our colleagues from SG for forward-looking indicators, should prevail in the markets better mood and risk assets today are slightly stronger. Euro would be able to do better, but in the medium term nothing will change the fact that our colleagues from SG expect weaker European currency levels.

Author: Jiri Skop

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