Research (Conseq)
Markets  |  February 21, 2013 15:28:04

Will Germany in the eurozone who sell?


German economy in the final quarter of last year lost. Compared to the third quarter output was 0.6% lower. For the full year was Europe's largest economy performance of 0.7% yoy.  

The biggest influence on lower numbers should decrease in investment and partial impact deceleration of trade, especially in December, when it fell by 3 billion euros against expectations (about 0.12% of the annual GDP). Investments fell in real terms in 2012 by two percent (GDP effect of about 0.4%).   German GDP was not artificially přifukováno enormous government spending as in other countries.

Latest figures from the German economy, however, look quite positive. All leading indicators such as purchasing managers indexes or Munich Ifo Institute for economic research, show improving trends. German jobs in the past year increased by 320,000 people. The fiscal balance is among the best in the euro area, unless you count eccentric Estonia. Germany's current account surplus in 2012 was equal to 166.9 billion euros, slightly more than the total output of the Czech economy.  

However, this should in the future could be a problem. The continuing crisis in the eurozone periphery and French President steps Holland, who doggedly tries to connect his economic policy of France to the periphery may cause these States do not have enough money to buy German goods. Germany would then have to focus more on Asian markets, where he also currently performing.

Czech economy has traditionally been with the German very tied. Germany goes to 32% of Czech exports, representing more than a quarter of the total output of our economy.Any problem of the German economy would have to ours therefore reflected a fundamental way.

 

 

Vojtech Iron,

Portfolio Manager

Conseq Investment Management, Inc.

 

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