Saxo Bank (Saxo Bank)
Commodities  |  February 25, 2013 10:14:21

Commodity prices are falling because of China and the Federal Reserve

Worse results, which are held in the last month of most agricultural commodities, and then transferred to precious metals, in the last week expanded too dependent on commodities for economic growth. Hit was thus necessary energy and industrial metals, which led to significant losses. Fared less well fixed stars such as Brent, platinum and copper. Because investors began pulling out their long positions, which resulted in some commodities very noticeably.

Last weakening commodity prices has yet to blame China, which of its banking system Odsal record amount of money. This was a response to the high credit growth, and it was the first time in eight months, as China failed to secure liquidity. All this testifies to the growing fear of high inflation. In addition, heating of the economy also supported by data from the real estate prices, which continue to grow at an alarming pace. These reports indicate no or industrial metals, because the greatest demand for copper (needed in housing and infrastructure) and platinum (automotive industry) is from China. But if you fail to shift attention from measures to reduce inflation towards growth measures, the demand for these metals could fall. Just last week both metals fell by almost four percent.

On Wednesday, a report was published last meeting of the Fed, where he reiterated the concerns of some members of the bank's December meeting. Some members, however, are still not the majority, are afraid of the impact of large-scale quantitative easing (QE - quantitative easing) to the financial system. Low interest rates does carry the risk that investors will throw into dangerous investments. Markets are still waiting for the denouement, when the latest round of QE is limited or terminated. Mainly it is the markets in gold and silver, because they do not know what will support the precious metals, when the economy will cease to pump another trillion.

Last week losses suffered two key commodity indices DJ-UBS and S & P GSCI, when all sectors except agriculture fallen on sales. Since the beginning of the performance of these two indices are different and the superiority of the S & P GSCI, who attributes the positive results through increased focus on energy. Conversely DJ-UBS index moved into negative territory mainly because of their diversified portfolio. Relies more on the metals that were hard hit during this period losses.

When looking at performance across commodities, we clearly see that the losses mainly related to energy and metals. On the contrary, the agricultural sector has brought profits to the natural gas. Excelled primarily soybeans, because few rains in Argentina and it is expected that due to strong demand from China will lack beans.

Ole Hansen, commodity strategist at Saxo Bank

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