BOSSA.CZ (BOSSA.CZ)
Macroeconomics  |  February 27, 2013 08:40:00

Early analysis of the EUR / USD, improves mood Germans second month in a row


iPoint.cz German consumer sentiment is improving the second month in a row and calms eurozone, because it is more good news from the largest economy on the improving times. A survey carried out by GfK, which interviewed more than 2,000 Germans. The more positive future was convinced more respondents than last month. The index jumped from 5.8 points to 5.9 points.

GfK survey and followed up on February's good news from our neighbors. ZEW index of economic sentiment amounted to 48.2 points and Ifo business index to 107.4. Sentiment surveys suggest that the local economy should return to growth after solid 4th shrinkage quarter in the previous year (-0.6 percent).

The tense situation on the markets stabilized last night after Bernanke's speech in the Senate, where he defended the stimulus program, the U.S. central bank. The market is so at least for a while detached from the concerns that caused them political stalemate following elections in Italy. Fed chief said that quantitative easing program benefits clearly outweigh the potential costs. Fed chairman at the same time urged lawmakers to avoid a sharp cut in government spending, which will come into force on Friday.

EUR / USD consolidates since yesterday and still did not find the courage to test more significant level of 1.30. Price got back into the rectangle, where consolidation has created a hidden bearish divergence. Continue to remain in a bear market trend and not break until declining channel upwards, so it will remain.


The most important anticipated events of the day:

EUROZONE - M3 Money supply and bank loans to the private sector for January at 10:00.

EUROZONE - Econ. sentiment and inflation expectations for February at 11:00.

ITALY - Auctions of 10-year bonds

USA - Durable goods orders for January at 14:30.

BERLIN - ECB Executive Board member Yves Mersch will speak at the conference Börsen-Zeitung, at 15:00.

USA - under negotiation home sales for January at 16:00.

Washigton - President of the Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke will give a semi-annual report on the economy and monetary policy before the Committee on Financial Services of the House of Representatives, at 16:00.

MUNICH - ECB President Mario Draghi will speak at the Bavarian Catholic Academy, at 18:30.

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