Markets  |  February 27, 2013 13:00:42

Comedian on a cliff About the Italian election, which this week signed for many additional analysis and possible development could be only an empty threshing straw. Because no one can govern efficiently, we can expect colorful somersaults in opinions about who to whom and under what conditions could theoretically govern. As an example can serve the winner of the elections, Beppe Grillo otherwise name that even one month ago almost nobody knew. First, he was very anti-establishment, but now it does not cooperate. Nevertheless campaign and real power are two different things. It's possible that will eventually agree.And if the do not agree, they will be more choices with the other rules, and to have somebody win, so let reigns and let him command the insecurity. A likely scenario, however, will be similar as the Greek. Behold there were huge concerns and the potential end of the world (the one we've been here every few weeks) and eventually stayed alive status quo. Promise to reform, progress is slow, large protests and caravan goes further.

Who can realistically govern in Italy? Bersani + Monti + Grillo. Or Berslusconi + Grillo? What real change? Probably nothing revolutionary. Train Eurocracy Be it too quickly, in order to drive away from it as ugly could be without injury to get off. Italy has a debt of 100% of GDP and úrokoch applies only to 2% of GDP annually. Nod = fast bankruptcy, that is, if the ECB does not help. A ECB help only when Brussels is happy. So it is necessary to make it what ever.Brussels ascertain that reforming, investors promise GDP growth, to convince voters that strongly promotes national interests and sponsors that the business is still fairly means. And this should apply, even if the prime minister Berlusconi returned. It is not in anyone order to allow the system rozpadol. Since this generates today's earnings at the expense of future costs. A major responsibility of agents is still close to zero.

It would certainly be a positive surprise, should the new prime minister managed to mount such a course, in order to tax-nezaťažovali needlessly company and working, in order to reduce red tape, partokracia, corruption and waste. Lenz then somebody would come on his rent, and given how long it thus set the system works is a big risk that those to whom the current situation suits the setting, you have the money,influence and good lawyers.

That's how quickly can trust dissolution in Italy highlighted well as Italian yields, whose development over the last few days reminds cliff.

And therein duel is taking place on another government. Best of all is no longer with by that comedian Beppe, but will soon need to make real policy and not just stirring speeches on the squares. A speech on the exemption of Italian debt are not very happy beginning, because the government would uľavila months but in the future, who would lend to Italian citizens and businesses? Markets it will not, certainly not the closest years to decades after bankruptcy. So it wants real solutions and not simple populism.

Market so haunted not just America's fiscal cliff, but also Italian. Right America's fiscal cliff is through greater threat to the economy, because it represents not just speech but deeds. It is unfortunate that since Congress is still nedohodol and All aboard the automatic cuts, which is not very subtle approach to the economy and water (liabilities) that the trays can also pour child (growth and confidence). Today we wait on orders data of long-term consumption of goods, but American data is suddenly irrelevant. Just to look at yesterday's excellent consumer confidence data and realitného market. Shares responded lukewarm, neither nepomohol dovish Bernanke in Congress. If shares hitherto ignored even weaker results, now ignoring even the better. A battle was the first of March.The White House is starting to blame Congress of spoiling the agreement, instead of being comforted that this is all good.

U.S. stocks have had two big drops and the situation is very similar to trading in December. Automated trading systems ensure surgically accurate growth trend and then trust has vanished and began the toboggan. And there he held a deadline to correction of up to 5%, which would today marked the way forward to the level of the 1460th Who ostávame the zone of 1515/20 is a view of a bear.

Author: Thomas Swimmer | TRIM Broker, as | Trading on exchanges TRIM Broker

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