Investiční bankovnictví (Komerční banka)
Currencies  |  February 28, 2013 08:22:00

Changeover in the middle slightly waxed

The common European currency on Wednesday anointed losses from previous days, but the euro gains were only modest. Rate USD / EUR has shifted from morning levels around 1.3060 USD / EUR 1.3100 above the surface (this morning, the euro against the dollar traded around 1.3140 USD / EUR). Reinforce the other risky assets, such as the European shares was reported gains of 1.6%. Euro helped especially Italian government bond auction (selling the five-year and ten-year bonds), which did not disappoint. Attention to this auction markets are concentrated because of the outcome of Monday's patovému parliamentary election. However, neither the success of this auction Italy guarantee long-term sustainability of public finances and regain international competitiveness. They will need significant reform.Given the outcome of the election, however, the policy will be difficult to enforce important reforms. Italy will definitely be located under the close observation of financial markets (10Y government bond yields in recent days have increased from levels below 4.5% over 4.8%).
Yesterday published data in aggregate pleased. Economic confidence in EMU has improved, with growth recorded component industry and services. Improvement was seen in German consumer confidence. In the USA, then pleasantly surprised by the orders of durable goods, which rose by 1.9% mom (adjusted for volatile transport).
Today will be published in Germany in consumer prices (inflation should be lower in February from 2.2% to 2.0%), and theunemployment (in February should stagnate at 6.8%). Will there even French consumer spending, which should fall by 0.2% m / m Sledovanější data come from the U.S.. Regular new application in unemployment, according to our colleagues from SG could increase from 345 thousand. at 370 thousand. (Market 360 thousand.), It still should thus be safely kept under the surface of 400 thousand. Furthermore, we will see the specification for 4Q GDP (expected revision upwards) and several indicators of trust, the most important of the index of industrial Chicago area (market expected to deteriorate, our colleagues from SG are optimistic).

Author: Jiri Skop

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