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Macroeconomics  |  February 28, 2013 12:39:15

View from Moscow

Noteworthy   Spiegel magazine interview with Alexei Kudrin, Russia's finance minister from 2000-2011, who during his tenure has gained prestige in the West. The interview was very interesting, from potačátku focused on the situation in Russia, and later we were talking about the global situation. In this section, a few things struck me.

0px; "> According to him, Russia avoid economic reforms and has them prefer to increased defense spending., Even in a situation where the third largest foreign exchange reserves in the world and is growing by 3.5%., At first sight it seems strange, but it is so. Moreover, government revenue is largely dependent on the oil price. crude oil price may drop, and if the expenses are set to today's price of oil, Russia dostrane into trouble.

In the first place it should be an increase in the retirement age (men today are leaving in 60 Letcho, women 55), further to redirect spending toward investments in infrastructure - roads,Cedeno electric, water mains, etc. as needed sees the limitations of state influence in the economy. Government spending must be strictly controlled and clear rules. This will limit the scope for corruption.

I agree, ever the country should make the necessary reforms, than when they have the time and resources. Then, these reforms have short-term negative impact.

In Europe, according to him, are Greece and Spain de facto bankruptcy, do it to be able to pay its debts. ECB purchases of government bonds does not solve it just rolls ahead. Without further depreciation of existing debt, the situation does not improve.

Regarding the euro, was a great enthusiast at a time when the euro was being introduced. Now shows what many of the things that has been thought through, the euro zone countries to behave benevolently překračujícícm stavonené maximum deficits. Proved, so that rules can be circumvented with impunity.

The current economic crisis can quickly become a political crisis. People in the EU are not ready for a drastic reduction in living standards, accustomed to live beyond their means. The current standard of living is not sustainable. This also applies to Germany. If the Germans refuse to continue to pay in euro, they will have to get used to, there is a fiscal union and that part of their taxes and government spending decisions are made in Brussels.

-Webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; "> It's hard to tell whether the Germans something really ready. Therefore their exit from the eurozone really conceivable.

Either way, it will be difficult political decision.   I agree.

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