Vladimír Urbánek (Kurzy.cz)
Macroeconomics  |  February 28, 2013 13:45:23

China - nearly half the provinces lowers growth target for this year, leaving the rest at last year's level

14 of 31 major Chinese provinces the cut in the growth prospects of their economies compared to last year's level. 17 remaining leaving their estimates on last year's levels. Weighted average estimates dropped to 9.9% from last year's 10.3%. The overall range of estimates varies from 7.5% for Shanghai and 14% for Guizhou. Last year, 14 provinces failed to fulfill its growth objectives.

Reducing regional government estimates may indicate that the central government plans to restore stronger growth across the economy are not entirely realistic. On the other hand, it may alleviate concerns about the negative impact of regional defaults on the overall financial system of China. Reducing the growth targets is may be related to regional efforts for better and more efficient structure of the resulting growth, which is consistent with the policy of the central government that the recent change in leadership calls for temperance in all respects.

The province has traditionally overstate their estimates compared to real data. Last year, the combined GDP by as much as 5.8 trillion yuan more than the final result. Such a mistake is, for comparison, at the level of the whole economy size island of Indonesia. Nationwide last year, GDP grew by 7.8% over the last decade, the moving average is at 10.6%. Market estimates for this year China's GDP growth of 8.1%.

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