Vladimír Urbánek (Kurzy.cz)
Macroeconomics  |  February 28, 2013 14:40:24, updated

U.S. - GDP revision economy returned to growth, but much smaller than expected

The first review of the development of U.S. GDP in Q4 of last year brought further refinement preliminarily estimated data. According to the revision of U.S. GDP in the fourth quarter grew qoq by 0.1% compared to pre-estimated decline of 0.1%. But a market is allowed to rise by 0.5% in the overall range of estimates by -0.1 to +1%. 3Q GDP grew by 3.1%.

For the whole of 2012, GDP grew by 2.2% compared to 1.8% in 2011.

The final revision of the data will be available in late March.

Consumer spending in Q4 grew by 2.1% in annual terms, compared with 2.2% in the forecast. Average market expectation was set to grow by 2.3%. In 3Q domestic demand grew by 1.6%. Consumer spending contributed to an overall 1.47 percentage points of GDP.

Military spending in Q4 declined by 22%, which corresponds to the largest decline since 1972, when it approached the end of the war in Vietnam.

The trade balance in Q4 reached a deficit of 395.2 mld.USD, which was the lowest since 1Q10. Reducing the deficit contributed 0.24 percentage points to the resulting GDP.

Stocks increased year on year in Q4 12 compared mld.USD preliminarily estimated growth of 20 mld.USD. Reduction in growth stocks repudiate the resulting GDP 1.55 percentage points.

For Q1 this year is estimated GDP growth of 1.8% on an annual basis.

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