TRIMBROKER (TRIMBROKER)
Currencies  |  March 01, 2013 15:55:22

Boom - Bubble - Burst. Boom ...


iPoint.cz Sentiment in the market we are significantly worse, taking not happen nothing new or substantial. Len is counted situation is such that everything will be OK, it is becoming less likely. The first thing a fiscal cliff. We know it is coming, in recent times it is ignored, will likely be gradual slope, but in any case, time is already running. So - from today (01.03) apply the automatic cuts. From 03.27 government does not have the funding to 4.15 it is necessary to adjust it to the laws of Congress and his budget constraints. Until 19 5th the government has room for maneuver, because it is temporarily canceled debt ceiling. After this date you will not have room. Automatic cuts should reduce the GDP of the 0th6 percentage points, this reduction is added to the reduction of the influence of higher consumption taxes. That's valid from 01.01 The Ministry of Defence should cut spending by 8%, 2% Medicare, outside defense cuts will be about 5%. Legislators in the U.S. now also have the option to increase the flexibility of governments in crossed out, you just have to negotiate. This is the way of proposals for democratic - different mix of increasing tax revenue and reducing expenses than the surface. Republicans are reluctant to raise tax revenues at all, but probably will need to make a compromise, otherwise they will "chop pell-mell." If Congress wants to avoid a reduction rating (than in 2011), he should have laws over indulge in this flexibility, otherwise markets will be even more terrified and rating agencies aggressively. To date, however, Congress agree not know or did not happen yesterday.Before the circuit cuts the Fed also warned that said, however, that what best can do is let QE are live to the fullest, can not do nothing for politicians.

If you already have a debt crisis, it should be said that the government has not just a skeleton in the cupboard. Students will also blew off us from chains. Universities in the U.S. are without question one of the top (two of the three best are from the U.S.), but not all, of course, it can afford. Never mind, we have student loan. Those, however, are the structural volume and an ever more interesting, much like they were in the years 2007 and 2008, mainly credit cards and mortgages. And student loans are provided to you in greater volumes, such loans through credit cards households. After mortgages have the largest volume of the right student loan. Whom were at the start of the crisis in the volume of student loan just over $ 600 billion and credit cards at more than 700 billion, The student loan now approaching $ 1 trillion. (More precisely $ 966 billion) credit cards who are at the level of 670 billion and now it essential to see that the volume delikvencií sharply increasing. While at the beginning of the crisis were delikvencie (nesplácanie 90 days or longer) at student loans from the 7.5% level, at the end of 2011 8.5%, now it is 11.7% (!), Which is already worse than the kreditkách. Why? Expensive university graduate comes out of school by credit on the neck and can not find work. Well ... can not repay. And this can cause a problem.

All this is only part of a larger image and thus the total U.S. debt. This debt is made up of all the entities in the economy, not just the government. Household debt has reached a peak in 3Q2008, when small volume of 12.675 trillion. USD. Today, mainly thanks to the reduction of mortgage debt (redemption or default) is slightly lower - households reduced their debt is at 11.34 trillion., That is about 1.33 trillion. or about 10.5%. Debt of households and 71.7% of GDP. Similarly, debt has also undercut the financial sector and owe only 87% of GDP. It is even more beautiful th page coin. However, those who undercut the debt of sectors, the government continued to grow and gradually join even non-financial sector. The total debt of the U.S. is so 342% of GDP. Debt and continues to grow. This, however, what the Fed succeeded, was zero at rates jump-start the economy, the debt ratio is so since 2009 has declined from 372% to 342%. Let's see what this will do to stop the cuts and the economy. The graph should be číslam to add three zeros, so of course I am not talking about billions but biliónoch USD. U.S. GDP is at a level less than 16 trillion. USD. Total debt is at 53.3 trillion. USD, as of 2Q2012.

If you do we connect these facts together, we see that they know one way to grow the economy now is the debt of anyone it must be done. Now it's government, she was unable to spend as much. For today's give personal consumption and income, it is clear that households cross border shoppers spend the same pace as in December of an even slightly more, despite the fact that their income declined by 3.6% on a monthly basis. This was not here yet and the data tracked from WWII. Households can therefore are kept on standard debt. And as we have seen, students will also be trying, but the pace of credit growth zlyhaných us suggests that it's been long not stand it. Then it can be zatiahnu company, someone has to. And the economic cycle will continue running Boom (growth) Bubble (bubble) and Burst (bubble burst). And after rupture must be started to inflate further, otherwise the assets will not grow.

The best padajúcim inštrumentom today include the British pound, which is against the USD at the lowest level since July 2010. Manufacturing sector PMI data is brought in a further blow to UK economy. After the lower-rating because of high debt and a decrease of GDP leaves the production sector back into contraction. Financial sector now significantly pushed down the ongoing tunneling vyúsťovanie attempted bank Monte Paschi.

It seems that once again the bank and several political leaders dobiehať past. To Monte Paschi (oldest bank in the world), full political nominantov hide bank larceny over overpriced purchase of a competitor, he needed it for some obscure accountancy. It procured fictitious derivative transaction with Deutsche Bank and Nomura Japan between 2008 and 2009. Banca Monte Paschi purchased the Antonveneta for € 9 billion, of more than € 2 billionmore than paid for Banco Santander bank tú istú few weeks previously. For derivative positions that were open on Black out of this difference, the loss was more than € 700 million Monte Paschi yesterday received state aid in the volume of € 4.1 billion and is likely to return for the ide sue. Deutsche Bank today fell by over 5% and is at the forefront of overflow financial sector, which pulls down European shares. And now from the political side of things - mala closest to Monte Paschi many years, the Democratic Party Bersani, which is the most serious adversary Berslusconiho in the battle for prime minister. And if only the closest - the Democratic Party of Monte Paschi de facto control. A bonus - at a time when they do things really happened, was the governor of the Bank of Italia (the Italian Banking Supervision banking sector) - Mario Draghi.This is the same man that we have sleepy voice speaks reflections about future economic recovery and risks, and in addition should boss the banking supervision across the EU. Ešteže Monti was at that time somewhere in the Goldman Sachs ... Otherwise, the prime minister of Italy competes venal media mogul, influential politician dipped in bank škandáloch comedian and populist. Italians of which you have collected.

U.S. stocks have refused several times growth over 1520 and early test februárového prefer bottom at the 1482nd The only adequate growth stimulus could come from Congress through already above Said agreement on alternatives to fiškálnemu cliff.

Author: Thomas Swimmer | TRIM Broker, as |Trading on exchanges TRIM Broker


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