Investiční bankovnictví (Komerční banka)
World markets  |  March 01, 2013 16:12:00

Crown moved to monthly minimum

Czech currency was evolving worst currency in the Central European region this week. While the Polish zloty in the whole week was roughly half a percent better off and the Hungarian forint stagnated, the Czech koruna has lost more than half a percent, while the rate during Friday's session came to reach the level of 25.70 CZK / EUR. Thus, weak domestic currency was recently at the beginning of February. Crown in effect, wipe out all the profits earned by the board after the meeting of the CNB's monetary policy in early February.

Exchange rate contributes to the easing of monetary conditions. And as this week said board member L. licked, CNB, you may still need to ease monetary policy instrument and most likely would have been free from intervention crown. I continue to believe, however, that the current level of the course is the use of direct intervention unlikely.Crucial for the further development of the data from the real economy evaluating entry into the new year. Leading indicators plead from this view favorably.

The February survey and boom PMI index of industrial activities indicate Although cautious, despite obvious improvement in sentiment among households and corporations. Overall confidence in the Czech economy in February increased due to the growth of both components of the index of trust - trust recorded growth of entrepreneurs and consumers. Respondents from the industrial sector even for the next three months expect a slight increase in production activity and employment. Nothing, however, change the fact that the overall business confidence is below last year's level, reflecting the deepening recession in the euro area at the end of last year.This consumer confidence is even higher yoy and indicates that the long-subdued demand could begin to gradually strengthen. In our forecasts, we expect to improve from the middle of the year, to dissipate the impact of the current wave of fiscal consolidation. The best result since 2000, then recorded the previous year's development budget.

Conclusion next week will bring some interesting data the January trade balance and the February unemployment. Especially in the trade balance are curious on growth rates of exports and imports. December data was in fact influenced by the extremely low number of working days. The actual balance for December mom fell by CZK 15.1 billion to CZK 18.4 billion (SA). In January we expect correction, when the trade balance should improve month on month by 5.3 billion to CZK 23.7 billion (SA) with the risk upwards.Not seasonally adjusted trade balance should show a surplus of CZK 29.6 billion, which is down by 1 billion less. Nominal exports should decline year on year by 1.3% and imports by 1.1% then. With unemployment we will see further deterioration in the labor market. The current recession in the Czech economy is consistent with a further increase in the unemployment rate. The share of unemployed persons (SA, the new methodology) began to increase from 6.6% in April last year to 7.3% this January. In February, the unemployment rate according to our estimates, an increase by a further 0.1 percentage points to 7.4% (SA). Not seasonally adjusted by the share of unemployed persons had stagnate at 8.0%. In the following months, the situation on the labor market should continue to deteriorate, as enterprises will be recruiting new staff cautious rather be expected layoffs.

The crown is currently less than one percent on weaker than expected with the central bank's forecast for the first quarter. Overall, for the coming week, we expect that breaking levels of 25.75 CZK / EUR will be difficult without a pulse. After depreciating trend of the past three weeks, we see a decent chance to correct the existing crown loss. On further developments will be decided in March published macroeconomic data.

Author: Jan Vejmělek

Tyto zprávy pro vás vytváří Investiční bankovnictví KB.
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