Investiční bankovnictví (Komerční banka)
World markets  |  March 04, 2013 07:52:00

Euro for the first time under 1.3000 USD / EUR

The common European currency last week declined further expanded and so their losses. Since the beginning of February, when the exchange rate was attacking 1.3700 USDE / EUR, the euro has lost more than five percent. The course is at the end of last week briefly came under 1.3000 USD / EUR to 1.2966 USD / EUR.

Euro too would benefit from a series of less favorable economic indicators and thus also in the very end of last week. The final result of the February PMI index of industrial production for the euro area pointed out that neither the German better result is not enough to compensate for the weaker performance of France and the southern states. Historically, the highest unemployment rate unexpectedly strong decline and inflation raise speculation that the ECB will continue to make its relaxed monetary policy to support the European economy.Euro then after the last week suffered as a result of the outcome of the Italian elections, have brought to the markets of the next wave of uncertainty. Form a stable and at the same time pro-reform government in Italy appears on the electoral outcome almost impossible.

Automatic fiscal cuts in the U.S. are cause for concern. For higher risk aversion then perhaps paradoxically, benefited just the U.S. dollar. U.S. President Obama at the end of last week signed a regulation limiting the planned federal spending. By the end of September and will have individual ministries and other government organizations to cut 85 billion USD, which represents 0.6% of GDP. Negative impact on the growth of the U.S. economy this year, according to estimates of economists SG 0.2 percentage points. Fiscal cuts mean that the central bank will seek to compensate.This reduces the likelihood that the Fed this year ended quantitative easing program.

This week will bring, although no important economic data, however, the events will be rich. Already held meetings of the Eurogroup, which should be the main item on the agenda help Cyprus. Let's see if I confess also softening views on fiscal measures in favor of growth. This would not like to hear the ECB, which will meet on Thursday to discuss monetary policy. No action is expected. However, at the press conference can be seen words, the central bank is ready to help if necessary. And as a possible rate cut and OMT program. Its application for individual countries is strictly conditional on reform-oriented activity of the country. If the economic indicators this week will be interesting as his other half.On Wednesday, for the euro area published refined estimate of GDP for Q412, which should confirm the recession on Friday then we will see data for January from German industry. On the side of the United States will be an interesting Thursday's Jobless Claims data and foreign trade in January and Friday, then the February statistics from the labor market.

Even when the euro finally ended with last week just above the $ 1.3000 / EUR, we are afraid that this does not mean that the downward trend was over. On the European side still many uncertainties that will defend the euro's rise. Very soon so we can wait for the next course efforts fall below 1.3000 USD / EUR.

Author: Jan Vejmělek

Tyto zprávy pro vás vytváří Investiční bankovnictví KB.
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