Vladimír Urbánek (Kurzy.cz)
Macroeconomics  |  March 05, 2013 10:58:57

China - the target for GDP growth this year at 7.5%, 3.5% inflation, business growth of 8%, retail 14.5%

Outgoing Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao in his speech at the annual National People's Congress, inter alia, identify the Chinese government economic targets for this year. According to his statement, the GDP for this year targeted at 7.5%, the same as last year, while inflation targeting to 3.5%. In the years 2005-11 the target for GDP growth stood at 8%. Target for inflation in 2012 was 4%. GDP last year grew by 7.8%, which was the lowest since 1999. The market on average for this year is expected to grow by 8.1%. In 4Q12 GDP grew by 7.9% and accelerated for the first time after two years of decline. Inflation in 2012 grew by 2.6%, which was less than half the level in 2011. The market is expected to grow this year for the price of about 3.1%.

Wen also made clear target for M2 money supply indicator, which should grow by 13% compared to 13.8 in 2012.

Wen said that the Chinese economy in the last decade has come a long way, which rose about four times its size, thanks to which it is now in second place in the world as far more than just the U.S. economy. Size of the Chinese economy gradually over decades overcame economies of Germany and Japan, and one of the few growing even during the global financial crisis in 2008/9. These successes, however, are redeemed by reducing the quality of goods and labor, environmental degradation and rising financial risks led to price bubbles in the real estate market and rising indebtedness of local governments. According to Wen China now lacks a sustainable development plan, which would replace the current unbalanced, uncoordinated and unsustainable development. China, he says, is facing the threat of growing social problems.

Wen reiterated that this year should again be another "release" the interest rates and the exchange rate of the Chinese yuan.

Government administration later added that the goal for foreign trade growth for this year at 8% year on targets at 10%. In reality, the volume of exports grew last year by 7.9% and imports by 4.3% then.

Target for growth in retail sales is set at 14.5%, investment in fixed assets should grow by 18%. reality of 2012 was for retail growth of 14.3% and investment growth of 20.3%.

The Chinese government allows public finance deficit at 1.2 trillion yuan = about 193 mld.USD, representing about 2% of GDP and represents an annual increase of 50%.
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