BOSSA.CZ (BOSSA.CZ)
Commodities  |  March 06, 2013 21:35:00

What will be the development of oil prices after the death of Chavez?


iPoint.cz Venezuela came on Tuesday for her longtime leader, died when President Hugo Chávez. Earth now temporarily drives the second man after Chavez, vice president and Nicolas Maduro. South American country awaiting presidential elections in the next 30 days. The question for financial markets is quite simple, Chavez will have death affect the price of oil?

Venezuela maintained a calm head and oil companies working in the same way as any other day. National oil company PDVSA calms the markets immediately and avoid any changes in cooperation with the international organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries OPEC.Death socialist leader would not have a significant short-term impact on the price of black gold. However, for future oil prices will be crucial upcoming elections. Reaches the victory of the current Vice President Maduro, so we will see Chavez preservation policy.

Significant changes in the country, it could bring any elected opposition. Opposition candidate Henrique Capriles said that if it becomes president he wants to investigate the politically oriented contracts that seem to become ineffective. He may even open up the market to foreign investors.

Project for crude oil along the Orinoco River, however, did not wait for any changes. Venezuela from the project promises to increase the extraction of two million barrels of oil per day. The investment in this program will exceed $ 80 billion.However, completion of this grandiose project will take longer, because Venezuela has problems with poor infrastructure and late payment company PDVSA.

Venezuela is the eleventh largest oil exporter in the world. These include the four largest suppliers in the U.S. and a very generous trade relations with China has. Oil trade accounts for 95 percent of Venezuela's income. Last year, Venezuela delivered daily to USA 906,000 barrels of oil, which is a high number, but since 2004, when it reached a peak of 1.3 million barrels, supplies are decreasing.

It is worth mentioning the possibility of the entry of foreign companies in the Venezuelan market in the event of a change of domestic policy. The Venezuela shakes mainly Conoco Phillips and Exxon Mobil. These companies are eager for a share of oil exports.Conoco and Exxon until 2007 operated in Venezuela, their heads collided as the nationalization of the oil market, when they failed to agree on commercial terms with the state company PDVSA.

Conoco Phillips was even the largest foreign shareholder in Venezuela, so it is not surprising that the death of the president attracts oil tycoon back to the playground so well known. In addition, it could benefit from the restoration of the original assets. Conoco Phillips property ranged from confiscation of about $ 4.5 billion, and according to today's market value is about 20 to 30 billion dollars.

Return or new investment in Venezuela is not so simple question. Venezuela suffer many economic problems. The local refineries are in such bad shape that Venezuela them imported gasoline and diesel from the U.S..For example, in December 2012 orders were a record 197,000 barrels of petroleum products per day.

The price of oil in the long term settled in a symmetrical triangle and thus constantly testing the Fibonacci levels of 50.0. Month of February was marked by decline, but even this failed to overcome short-term trend mentioned support. In terms of further development and long-term investments in oil worth the wait to pierce the triangle. Future solutions Venezuelan situation such movement could bring very soon.

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