Currencies  |  March 07, 2013 08:09:00

Intraday Analysis USD / JPY (7 March 2013) The U.S. economy, according to yesterday's Beige Book U.S. central bank (Fed) should continue in an improving condition. Beige Book, which provides information about the 12 U.S. regions, yielded very positive report on the state of the economy. Economic activity is slowly gaining momentum and should by the end of gradation growth. Consumer spending begins to grow and flourish and real estate market. The only weak link in some regions remain retail sales, but even those expected improvements.

Yesterday's Beige Book is very similar to her sister, issued on the 16th January. Does not change the positive outlook for the Fed, which is determined to promote economic growth at any cost. However, the Fed did not fail to remind the austerity measures, which came into force last Friday. American institutions need to save $ 85 billion and the Fed sees this as a throwing sticks at her feet. Several spoke against these cuts and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke before Congress. Fed policy remains unchanged, which means low interest rate (0.25 percent) and monthly stimulation in the form of bond purchases under $ 85 billion.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) to remain at its current monetary policy meeting. Recently that the world saw in the position of Governor Shirakawa, gives up his place most likely Haruhiko Kuroda.He should willingly fulfill the government's wishes and support aggressive easing of monetary policy.

On the night of the meeting opened board member Sayuri Shirai, who wanted to hasten the execution of the program of asset purchases, which will apply indefinitely in 2014. Her proposal was indeed thrown from the table, but it can not be completely ruled out that with the arrival of a new governor is consensus for this action is found.

BOJ kept interest rates at 0.10 percent and is still targeting 2 percent inflation. Sees economy better than the last meeting and the bankers had already bounced back from its bottom. But the new leadership will have to figure out how to beat faster deflation. So far remains valid Shirakawův commitment that by the end of BOJ buys assets and rozpůjčuje total 101 trillion yen. Returns should be mainly bonds with 3-year maturity.

Currency pair USD / JPY has recently held in the price range between 94.43 and 92.0. So far there is no indication that he should leave this consolidation. At 4 hours chart, we may have the higher peaks, indicating a short-term bullish trend, but further growth could prevent bearish divergence on the oscillator. The nearest support is 61.8 Fibonacci level.

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Intradenní analýza USD/JPY (7.3.2013)

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