World markets  |  March 07, 2013 17:47:51

We look at the markets through rose-colored glasses? / BIG EXPERT - foreign markets: from the 4th week Third 2,013


In recent days we have witnessed relatively great expansion of all major world benchmarks (where the Czech "unfortunately" does not belong). Major U.S. indexes are reaching their maximum values, if the Dow Jones even form new historical highs. Proponents bullish view argue a strong position corporate sector, the highest amount of cash and again rozjíždějícím business has M & A. Fail to emphasize the improving labor market and real estate in the U.S.. This positive mood in recent weeks as investors succumbed to other markets and wife share indices upwards.

But standing against a relatively large group of "bears" who, while taking note of the strong corporate sector, however, emphasize that this is a condition induced by "pressing" of money and not realitu.Argumentují weak consumer demand (in the U.S. account for 70% of GDP) practically unresolved European debt situation around and by the fact that the market has not been dealt with at all level of U.S. debt to GDP. They recall the fact that the market ignores U.S. fiscal cliff and its impact on the real economy.

When deciding whether to engage in the ongoing rally investors should take into account an additional argument. How is the current state of sustainable long-term or not. The mere hint that the Fed could reduce the volumes of assets to be purchased generated relatively sharp sell-off.And if we accept the thesis of the improving economy, asset purchases will have come to an end very soon, because the threat of dangerously rising inflation at the moment is very acute.

In the current situation, I concluded a long position and kept off the market.

Karel Handbag, CAPITAL GRANT

Expert opinions on the future development in selected foreign markets monitored through indices and comparison with the Czech capital market (PX) in the next month and a half, in the week of 4 Third 2013th


Experts estimate for the period of one month

Pointer
Hodn.
First Third
Diameter
Median
Change
in%
Interval
Growth
Decrease
PX
1 013,10
1 021,00
1,020
^ 0.78
985-1 068
3
2
Dow Jones (U.S.)
14 089,66
14 120,40
14066
^0.22
13 950 - 14 300
2
3
NASDAQ (U.S.)
3 169,74
3 195,00
3,170
^ 0.80
3 150 - 3300
3
2
FTSE 100 (UK)
6 378,60
6 394,80
6,374
^ 0.25
6300 - 6 500
2
3
DAX (Germany)
7 708,16
7 819,20
7,800
^ 1.44
7700 - 8 000
4
1
Nikkei 225 (JPN)
11 606,38
11 654,40
11500
^ 0.41
11 150 - 12 500
2
3


Experts estimate for the period of 6 months

Pointer
Hodn.
First Third
Diameter
Median
Change
in%
Interval
Growth
Decrease
PX
1 013,10
1 030,40
1,022
^ 1.71
1 020 - 1 050
5
0
Dow Jones (U.S.)
14 089,66
14 068,80
14344
ˇ -0.15
13 000 - 14 400
4
1
NASDAQ (U.S.)
3 169,74
3 195,60
3,200
^ 0.82
2 970 - 3 400
3
2
FTSE 100 (UK)
6 378,60
6 454,00
6,500
^ 1.18
6270 - 6 600
4
1
DAX (Germany)
7 708,16
7 798,00
7,900
^ 1.17
7240 - 8100
4
1
Nikkei 225 (JPN)
11 606,38
12 012,80
11800
^ 3.50
11 600 - 13 000
4
1

Rating this week performed:

  • Menčík Thomas, George Šimara, Lukas Langer - CYRRUS
  • Libor Bucek, Jan Mach, Milan Nedbálek - FINANCE Zlín
  • Patrick Hudec - Generali PPF Asset Management, a fund manager společnost
  • Karel Handbag, Miroslav Hlavoň - CAPITAL GRANT
  • Jaroslav Brychta - X-Trade Brokers

The tables contain a summary of the estimates of experts in the list. The column "Actual value" represents the value of the monitored indices (Friday's closing value), from which experts in their estimates came out. With this value, the estimates of experts after a period of one to six months, compared to evaluate success. "Median" is a number that is in the middle the size of a structured set of estimates and "Interval Estimates" lists the minimum and maximum estimate file.Columns "Increase / Decrease" indicate the number of experts assume that the index of the period under consideration, given the current value rises or falls.
Note: Estimates are in the form of non-binding opinions with regard to the expected development in the next one month and a half year. The fact, however, may substantially differ from the estimates of experts. Experts even Kurzy.cz assume no responsibility for these differences.

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