Saxo Bank (Saxo Bank)
Commodities  |  March 08, 2013 10:49:50

Oil corrected gains, gold is at a crossroads


Worse results, which are held in the last month of most agricultural commodities, and then transferred to precious metals, in the last week expanded too dependent on commodities for economic growth. Was to be hit as energy and industrial metals, which led to significant losses. Fared less well fixed stars such as Brent, platinum and copper. Because investors began pulling out their long positions, which resulted in some commodities very noticeably.

Last weakening commodity prices has yet to blame China, which of its banking system Odsal record amount of money. This was a response to the high credit growth, and it was the first time in eight months, as China failed to secure liquidity. All this testifies to the growing fear of high inflation. In addition, heating of the economy also supported by data from the real estate prices, which continue to grow at an alarming pace. These reports indicate no or industrial metals, because the greatest demand for copper (needed in housing and infrastructure) and platinum (automotive industry) is from China. But if you fail to shift attention from measures to reduce inflation towards growth measures, the demand for these metals could fall. Just last week both metals fell by almost four percent.

On Wednesday, a report was published last meeting of the Fed , where he reiterated the concerns of some members of the bank's December meeting. Some members, however, are still not the majority, are afraid of the impact of large-scale quantitative easing(QE quantitative easing) to the financial system. Low interest rates does carry the risk that investors will throw into dangerous investments. Markets are still waiting for the denouement, when the latest round of QE is limited or terminated. Mainly it is the markets in gold and silver, because they do not know what will support the precious metals, when the economy will cease to pump another trillion.

tydenni vykon sektoru Ropa korigovala zisky, zlato je na rozcestí

Last week losses suffered two key commodity indices DJ-UBS and S & P GSCIWhen all sectors except agriculture fallen on sales. Since the beginning of the performance of these two indices are different and the superiority of the S & P GSCI, who attributes the positive results through increased focus on energy. Conversely DJ-UBS index moved into negative territory mainly because of their diversified portfolio. Relies more on the metals that were hard hit during this period losses.

When looking at performance across commodities, we clearly see that the losses mainly related to energy and metals. On the contrary, the agricultural sector has brought profits to the natural gas. Excelled primarily soybeans, because few rains in Argentina and it is expected that due to strong demand from China will lack beans.

tydenni vykon komodit1 Ropa korigovala zisky, zlato je na rozcestí Beneficial correction in the energy sector

Sales of industrial metals endured unscathed only one sector and thus the energy (in particular, both types of oil and petrol). But this turned on Thursday, when it started talking about increasing oil reserves in the United States, and there are also signs of slowing demand before an annual refinery maintenance season. It eventually hit both types of oil to stable values ??of support. Sale was partly due to the rumors that commodity funds liquidated their positions. During the 30-minute massacre then changed owners about 70 million barrels of oil WTI. A poor results this oil continued even after she failed to climb above the last frontier support, now resistance at 95 dollars per barrel.

The latest data from the U.S. Office of Energy confirmed that oil WTI continues to grow. Its production had reached the highest level since 1992 and imports are still low as over the past 10 years. Thus we talk about the difference increases in oil prices WTI and Brent, which better reflects the price paid by consumers around the world. The United States increased the offer, but only with limited exports. But rising oil demand especially from emerging economies such as China need is reflected in the higher price of Brent oil. Difference between the two types of oil during the correction of the past week roseBecause, due to the above reasons, intensified selling pressure on crude oil WTI.

So far it is still too early to talk about the end of this year's rally, but close to the annual maintenance season and demand for oil from refineries in the northern hemisphere begins to decrease slowly. This could result in limited or no growth in prices in the next three months. Current development of oil can be described as positive correction after the speculative long position in both types of oil came at too high a value. Correction has helped oil prices compared with current fundamentals. Thus, the price of oil stopped outrunning myself just yet unrealized because of increased demand in the coming months of this year.

Correction for Brent stopped after oil reached support at 113.15 dollars a barrel. Terms of value, where they meet two different levels of support. One of them is minimal given the trend line from last July, while most other is 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement of the rally, which came last November. Brent If you hold this support, it could affect a deeper correction. Oil could then look up to $ 110 per barrel.

vyvoj ceny ropa brent Ropa korigovala zisky, zlato je na rozcestí

Gold struck a deadly cross and vague opinion Fed

Last week accelerated sales of precious metals that have plagued gold and silver since last October. Gold has thus been given to seven-month low. When it was once the January low is broken, gold fell to $ 1,555 for an ounce. Before the weekend but then found buyers. Kovu did not believe nor too long-term and speculative investors using the Exchange traded products. Those in the last week, specifically addressed to Thursday cut its position by 40 tons. This was just the fourth biggest reduction over the past five years.

Attention is then focused mainly on the outlook for the U.S. economy. Steadily improving economic data is a key means for the markets expectations of the date of the termination or suspension of quantitative easing.At the last meeting of the Fed started talking about him and some members of the Federal Open Market Committee ( FOMC ), so the markets began to be agitated. This may occur because a relatively rare phenomenon of technical analysis, the cross of death (death cross).

It occurs when the 50-day moving average goes below the 200 moving average. On the chart below, we can see why investors worried about a similar event. Over the past five years we have lived to see the cross only three times. In September 2008 led to 15procentnímu sale, from the date of the cross, having appointed the bottom. Further cross then occurred last April when gold declined until May 8 percent. The third deadly cross appeared in February 2012. However, he lasted only 13 days.

kriz smrti zlato Ropa korigovala zisky, zlato je na rozcestí

Gold Now more than ever, needs a catalyst, the metal gets away from the danger zone. It is the area between 1540 and $ 1525 per ounce. Speculative investors have largely retreated from gold, so investors have to find the necessary catalyst enough space. Ben Bernanke the 26th and 27 February to semi-annual report on monetary policy. But given the fact that the objection to quantitative easing welcomes only a minority of the Fed might want to quell speculation about his slow down or even stop.

Also increased the amount of speculative investors, who now gold rather shortují. Their eyes while denying the important area of $ 1,525 per ounce if gold had dropped below this value, it could mean the end of a decade-long rally on gold. This would result could bring a battle of words between sellers and those who believe that gold should be a natural part of any diversified portfolio. The price of gold could then help up and any improvement data from the U.S. economy.

Also silver, which in recent weeks has benefited from the recovery in demand from both industry and investment, accompanied by losses in the past week. The price of one ounce of gold eventually match the price of 55 ounces of silver, while the last minimum was 52.5 ounces. Fund managers have a lot of work with the termination of their long positions in gold, and so many did not address the sale of silver.And thanks to its dual use, whether investment or industrial metal. However, when selling silver gained momentum, they had to respond. That explains why silver is also very successful.

Ole Hansen, commodity strategist at Saxo Bank .

Post corrected Oil gains, gold is at a crossroads comes from Saxo Bank 24/7

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