Josef Kvarda (HighSky)
Investor's window  |  March 08, 2013 12:38:44

Approaching change the course of monetary policy the Fed?


The stability of monetary policy are expected from time immemorial to the essential ingredients of successful coexistence of central banks, economies and financial markets. Fed, for various reasons leader and head of the world's other central banks in recent years under the leadership of Bernanke tries to acceptable limits on enhancing transparency. From the beginning of his mandate at the head of the institution expanded Fed comments for each decision and quantify the inflation target. Not only that, the central bank recently modified the conditions of ultra-expansionary monetary policy and ceased publishing timeframe possible return.Represented by the sum of explicit economic parameters.

To the extent that the Fed's plan succeeds, will show a longer interval. In the last year, however, the central bank next several communication innovations also showed sharp changes of direction expected monetary policy, credit stability expectations of its intentions at least complicates, and perhaps even decreasing. Last year in late February Fed chief Bernanke suggested reduction in the appearance of monetary expansion. Speculation about the future direction of monetary policy got an unexpected denouement at the end of summer, when the markets are clearly surprised by the minutes of the meeting of the main interest rate of 7.31 - 1.8 (Published August 22). Fed on unconvincing economic news indicated a further release gates money supply, which in fact was confirmed in September.Additionally forged markets in the expectation that extrauvolněné monetary conditions will be in place at least until 2015, even if the expected economic recovery will increase. Another milestone of expectation of monetary policy, the minutes of the meeting of the main interest rate in December (published in early January) showing a significant shift of opinion. Part of the executive body indicated reduction of monetary expansion this year.

Although the Fed then tries to assure the continuation of the current monetary policy and persistence of very favorable financing conditions (declaration and write the January decision on key interest rate performances and presentations or semi-annual monetary policy report to Congress Bernanke in February). He wants to dampen the adjustment of financial markets. Yet the belief and confidence of the markets like a bolt from the blue came a serious flaw. Markets feels that change the course of monetary policy may come much sooner than it seemed a few weeks ago. In addition, increasing rift better economic news.

Relatively dynamic changes expectations of monetary policy is fundamentally reflected in the financial markets, particularly those that are sensitive to the Fed linked. The U.S. bond market and gold very closely copied the information from the Fed. Not surprisingly, early bond market briefly fell to a minimum, and long-term gold has problems turn semi downward trend and instead aims to test key support zone.

Ing. Josef Kvarda

analytik společnosti HighSky Brokers, a.s.

Vystudoval ekonomickou fakultu VŠB v Ostravě, obor národohospodářství. Působil jako analytik ve společnosti ATLANTIK finanční trhy, kde se zabýval makroekonomickými analýzami a projekcemi hlavních světových ekonomik a finančních trhů, zejména měn. Od ledna 2012 pracuje jako analytik ve společnosti HighSky Brokers a pokrývá forexové a komoditní trhy. Rovněž se specializuje na světovou a domácí makroekonomickou situaci. Pravidelně přednáší o finančních trzích a fundamentální analýze na seminářích pro veřejnost. Součástí jeho analytické práce je také poskytování informací a komentářů.

O SPOLEČNOSTI
Společnost HighSky Brokers, a.s. je prvním obchodníkem s cennými papíry na českém trhu, který svým klientům poskytuje možnost obchodovat měny (forex), komodity, akcie, akciové indexy a dluhopisy prostřednictvím nové obchodní platformy MetaTrader 5. Tuto platformu využívá jako jeden z prvních i v Evropě. Společnost vznikla v roce 2010 a disponuje licencí České národní banky. Základní kapitál společnosti činí 37, 5 milionů korun.

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