Investiční bankovnictví (Komerční banka)
Interest rates  |  March 08, 2013 16:39:00

Crown in this week reflected from the lunar base

The past week has been from the perspective of the Czech currency successful. Area of ??technical resistance level around 25.70 CZK / EUR proved to be strong, the course of her crown off and so partly corrected the losses suffered in the previous three weeks. Temporary atakováním levels of 25.40 CZK / EUR in the end of this week, so the domestic currency in the weekly ratings scored as having more than one percent.

The crown was also the most successful currency in the region. Polish and Hungarian currency weakened vice versa. While the losses were minimal zloty, HUF wrote a full point. Depreciation of both currencies can be put into the context of central banks. Sell-forint market reacted to the emergence of a new leadership central bank zloty paid for then suddenly a drastic reduction in key interest rates. It decreased by 50 bps to 3.25% historically low.Thus, a significant decrease in the market no one anticipated. According to the governor Belka this step should be regarded as a period at the end of a series of rate cuts.

End of the week brought some interesting data from the Czech economy, which meant stopping a week-long trend of strengthening the crown. The numbers we had returned to the reality of the current recessionary economic development in the country. Recession affects especially the labor market and is manifested by rising unemployment. Unfortunately, this trend was also confirmed by the February statistics. The share of the unemployed rose from 8.0% in January to 8.1%, without a record of the work is nearly 594,000 people. While weak domestic demand weigh on the Czech economy for a long time in the second half of last year began to wane and foreign demand. And today released January data confirmed the weakening trends in foreign trade turnover.Exports in January fell by 3.2% y / y, while we and the market had expected a decrease of only 1.3% y / y. Imports then fell by 4.1% y / y.

Entry into the new week will be the fundamental point of view no less interesting. Indeed we will see the final numbers for Q4 GDP 12 including structures, as well as statistics of real wages in Q4 12 and February inflation. Previously published quick estimate shows that even in the end of last year, the Czech economy in recession, mainly due to weak domestic demand, in which among other things can fall as well as real household incomes. This is reflected in declining retail sales. We are concerned that the January statistics, which will be published on Thursday, can bring great disappointment. While the market can expect a decrease of only 0.8% y / y, we are afraid decline by 4.5% y / y. It seems that last year's high inflation (3.3% on average) is already past.The January number has been reached only 1.9% y / y in February market awaits further slight decline in inflation to 1.8% y / y, which is our estimate. In line with the market was waiting for mom consumer prices rise by 0.2% m / m The reason is the rise in fuel prices (2.8% m / m). Higher, however, should be regulated prices (0.3%) and adjusted prices (0.1%). Year on year, but adjusted inflation will still hold in the red (in February -0.4% y / y), confirming the negative demand pressures on inflation. After strong growth in January, should food prices fall slightly (-0.3% mom), this investigation has shown statistical office for food products and food price developments in Germany. Conversely acting up prices of agricultural producers.

Due to the above-discussed not too encouraging fundamentals, we believe that additional space for the appreciation of the Czech currency is already appears limited. Even if not for the coming days exclude further shift to stronger levels in the context of a global decline in risk aversion level 25.30 CZK / EUR should act as a level of technical support and the course should be from her bounce. Gradually, we expect the return rate of 25.50 CZK / EUR.

Author: Jan Vejmělek

Tyto zprávy pro vás vytváří Investiční bankovnictví KB.
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