Saxo Bank (Saxo Bank)
Commodities  |  March 11, 2013 13:04:33

Commodities overcome poor numbers in February


Ole Hansen, commodity strategist at Saxo Bank .

Commodities after the February onslaught and managed to stabilize over the last week, market sentiment improved. Cheap money markets have helped, as the key bond markets in Germany and the United States have risen due to signs of economic recovery, which fell into the background and the fear of currency wars and the debt crisis. U.S. unemployment rate fell to a four-year minimum, because in February managed to create 236,000 new jobs. This further strengthened the shares, but rather worse precious metals.

Last week, Hugo Chávez died. Therefore began to speculate whether and if so when Venezuela is again open to foreign investment. It could thus become the largest reservoir of oil and increase its production, which declined during the last ten years, nearly a third. It is also interesting that the futures market predicts future price of Brent crude oil in 2020 to $ 91 per barrel, while the OECD came last week with a surprising number of $ 190 per barrel. And it is a much higher value than the other counted Energy Agency. According to the OECD significantly increase demand in emerging countries such as China or India. But for that alleged oil producers will not be able to respond, even though natural demand in relation to the more efficient use of oil decreases.

tydenni vykon komodit Komodity překonaly špatná únorová čísla

Energy market, however, he has not responded more messages, because prices after the recent sell-off has recovered and speculative long positions correspond to the beginning sentiment. Currently waiting for prices to return to a stable range, although due to the development of positions is still downside risk. The exception was natural gas, as compared with previous years the extraction (measured in weekly intervals) are growing. Gas demand is benefiting from increased industry interest in this commodity, cold winters and the gradual transition from coal, which is going on since last year.The decline in gas reserves also eased fears that it will repeat Sale similar to last year. He started roughly in March and one phase, the price of natural gas dropped even below two U.S. dollars per million BTU.

Prices of platinum and palladium rose primarily with how to respond positively to a better sentiment among investors. For that good results were gold and silver, which after the recent correction helped better view of fundamentals. Palladium was up by more than six percent and now he's doing most of the metals. Gold, silver and copper, rather then trying to secure a fixed rate (price) ground.

Cereals apparently waiting for abundance

The biggest loser has a wheat(Both Chicago and Paris Stock Exchange), with delivery this spring. Cereals market is preparing for the summer abundance. When weather is expected developments in the following season in the northern hemisphere will produce a record harvest. That is beginning to reflect on new crop corn prices (see below) and soybeans for delivery at the end of this year, currently trading about 22 percent, or 13 percent lower than the current spot market price.

In the short run, however, the market has to deal with the lack of current (ie old) cereal stocks. And because we do not know what the weather fluctuations or projected for the upcoming growing season, prices are significantly lower so likely. For example, maize for delivery in May found support at around 6.8 dollars per bushel.In addition, traders last week preparing for Friday's monthly report on the development of supply and demand issued by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Even before its publication sold and bought corn soybeans. Counting is the fact that stocks with the old corn harvest could be higher due to lower demand, while soybeans could still be due to the lack of lower production and exports from South Africa.

kukurice komodity Komodity překonaly špatná únorová čísla

Rally in sugar can drop after two years to begin

Sugar during the last week climbed to a four-month maximumThanks to better predictions fundamentals. If this trend continues, it could break your sugar cord drops. The pound is currently selling for 19.05 dollars, while in February 2011 the sugar looked up to 35centový record. The sudden development of the price was due to the fact that in the main Brazilian ports waiting to load corn and soybeans almost 200 ships. Such congestion can at the end of this quarter lead to delays in the delivery of sugar. On the other hand, the impending repeal of the tax on alcohol can cause the production of gasoline will begin to use more sugar cane at the expense of sugar.

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Oil is due to sufficient supplies remain under pressure

Oil market has failed to strengthen even though the U.S. authorities there comes getting better data. The price of oil is held in check by adequate supplies in the United States and elsewhere in the world. Disruption of supplies from the North Sea by oil at the beginning of the week brought support, finally managed to solve the problem and demand starts with approaching the maintenance season slow. Oil stocks are so inadequate. Other brake for oil could then pose a growing dollar comes under pressure and the other major currencies in the case of the euro, the pound and the Yen.

Brent returned to the range, which last year held almost throughout the second half of the year. Her short-term support is currently at 108 dollars per barrel, which is a moving average of the 200 (formerly $ 109 per barrel).Boundary resistance stabilized just above $ 112 a barrel, and that could cause it to break, it would appear more geopolitical risk. Fundamentals in the short term is still weaker refineries for maintenance.

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Gold: Interest rates versus strong dollar

Precious metals have so far failed to find a strong catalyst. Gold and silver are once again plunged. Failed to prevent or fluctuations (the sideways trading) when silver finally showed some signs of life.I continue then fell amount of gold held by the Exchange traded products (ETPs): from before last Friday fell by almost 20 tons per 2486 tons. At the beginning of the year while it was 2,632 tons (according to Bloomberg). For example, hedge fund owner John Paulson, who is now in the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) holds most positions, disturbing report that during the first two months of its gold fund lost 26 percent. Gold and related shares of mining companies had suffered painful losses.

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Gold while helped by news that another central bank, this time in South Korea, acquired during the Feb. 20 tons of this commodity. Precious metals so far failed to shake off the negative sentiment. One the other hand, fell into negative territory due to the fact that a few major institutions with gold ingots and other decreased during the last weeks of his predictions prices of precious metals. Other auto sales after launch report on the state of the U.S. unemployment. Similar developments have yet to see recently been several algorithmic trading is now set so that in the case of good economic data automatically sell precious metals.

Downside risk continues to revolve around the lows of late 2012 and returned to gold at least some positive momentum, the boundaries of resistance to overcome the $ 1620 per ounce.Under normal circumstances, a gold support in a period of declining real interest rates (bond yield minus inflation), because the price of gold holding positions is lower. But even the last drop of five-year U.S. bond yields failed to attract attention. Recently while similar revenues led to the fact that the rally has brought gold to $ 1,800 an ounce.

Nothing is lost. However, given the current economic environment, it is necessary to reduce future expectations for gold. According to us, the current price of gold could represent a short-term low in stable 250dolarovém range. At the same time it is recommended to monitor signs of further liquidation of ETP positions and also the development of the dollar, which can further strengthen (see graph above).Further weakening of gold under $ 1,550 per ounce would also could bring additional losses due to liquidation of long positions and shortováním by traders using technical analysis.

Post Commodities overcome poor February's numbers come from Saxo Bank 24/7

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