Vladimír Urbánek (Kurzy.cz)
Markets  |  March 11, 2013 17:30:16

CR - Summary 3.11 - PSE followed by mandatory technical correction in the world, very weak liquidity, TO2 in decline, Tatra on a new historic low


The PSE started 11th week below average liquidity and a slight decline, which followed the general European minus direction.

Negatively tuned macroeconomic news from China today became the trigger for a technical correction. Most European and American markets in recent days came to values ??close to about 4.5 year old highs or directly above them. Reports from China indicate the slowest growth of the local economy start to the new year, while the conviction but significant recovery was one of the main pillars of the global buying the January rally. Recent data suggest that the situation is not clearly positive or not so positive as originally estimated.
Another trigger for today's correction was to reduce the credit rating of Italy by Fitch. The reason for the deadlock result of recent elections, which casts doubt on the further development of Italian hence the European debt crisis.
Better than estimated results for German foreign trade entry optimistic suggesting Europe's largest economy into the new year should now only slightly positive effect that prevented greater sales correction.

On the domestic scene, the generally weak liquidity and primarily focused almost exclusively on the four major titles. Considerable interest in the correction defended against KB selling mood TO2, Erste and CEZ. Shares TO2 proofread all of Friday's growth and still part of the correction upped the ante. Investors now recognize and evaluate reports on the completion of the first sale attempt frequencies for 4G networks.Completion of the sale itself frequencies could be seen as positive for HC2, since de facto possibility of delaying the input of another operator (PPF) on the market. On the other hand, the high price offered by different operators suggests serious concerns all operators from the input of another strong player in the market, whose work is or might be one of the main risk factors for the future management of individual operators, including TO2. The high cost of new frequencies are also positively assessed the market, especially when the results of similar auctions in other European countries suggest more "rational" approach of the participants. Investors may fear that it could be repeated in case of sale of frequencies for 3G a decade ago, when exorbitant sums actually caused the devaluation of the full potential of new technologies and due to their exorbitant pricing demands of operators alsoonly a small or limited client interest in its use.
From the perspective of today's drop in share price HC2 would be good also recalled that Chile also speculates that the PPF for their entry into the domestic mobile market, it could make a direct offer to acquire any of the operators as the most "objective" was marked just Telefónica Czech, which alone has publicly traded shares. Intentional pressure on them because PPF can improve its bargaining position in any negotiations on the takeover and its price levels. This "pressure" may be one of the main risk factors for the development of the share price in the market in spite of the amount of the proposed dividend. Delay the auction of frequencies gives this variant PPF entry on domestic mobile market more weight.

Further strengthening today ascribed Fortuny which for the last two weeks has made ??better by about 19% because of an unexpected improvement in the results and proposals for special dividend represents an unusually high dividend appreciation.

Today was interesting Tatra shares slump that led to the creation of new historic lows for this title.

Daily comments on what is happening in the markets:
Brief situations Wall Street: opening 03.11
12.h - Europe corrects growth from last week ...

Name Course Change Volume Yesterday
AAA Auto 23.00    0.00% 1.38 million 23.00
CME CME 98.00    0.51% 1.59 million 97.50
ČEZ 619.00    -0.32% 116.79 million 621.00
ERSTE BANK GROUP 640.00    -1.36% 44.51 million 648.80
FORTUNA 96.90    0.94% 9.50 million 96.00
COMMERCIAL BANK 4157.00    0.65% 117.18 million 4130.00
NWR 76.00    0.66% 6.84 million 75.50
ORCO 59.90    -1.48% 1.43 million 60.80
PEGAS NONWOVENS 530.00    -0.28% 0.11 million 531.50
PHILIP MORRIS CR 11,470.00    -0.26% 5.21 million 11,500.00
TELEFÓNICA O2 321.00    -2.40% 101.41 million 328.90
UNIPETROL 173.10    0.93% 4.44 million 171.50
VIG 1019.00    0.39% 5.26 million 1015.00
TOTAL  415.64 million

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Fitch reduced the credit rating of Italy with negative.
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makroekonmika
China - the weakest start to a new year since 2009
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CR - revision of GDP increased r.2012 decline to 1.2%

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ČR - souhrn 11.3. - BCPP následovala povinnou technickou korekci ve světě, likvidita velmi slabá, TO2 v poklesu, Tatra na novém historickém minimu

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