Investiční bankovnictví (Komerční banka)
Currencies  |  March 11, 2013 17:29:00

Czech economy remained in recession

Regional currencies experienced an unsuccessful start of the week. Koruna against the euro, writing off half a percent value when the interbank market weakened over 25.55 CZK / EUR. Losses reported quarter percent rate the zloty against the euro and most significant drop in roughly two thirds percent lived to see forint, which for the first time since June of last year was above 300 HUF / EUR.

Preliminary data for the dynamics of the Czech GDP in Q4 12 confirmed the preliminary estimate, which pointed to the ongoing recession and a decline of 0.2% q / q. Over the past year, the Czech economy fell in real terms by 1.2%. From the demand perspective, the only contributor to the GDP dynamics, net exports, but it failed to offset the decline in domestic demand.The CNB is a downside data, when the central bank expected economic downturn in Q4 12 yen by 1.4% y / y (-1.7% in the end). Anti-inflationary hit as February's consumer inflation expectations despite slowed to 1.7% y / y (market anticipated a milder slowdown to 1.8%) and is thus 0.3 percentage points below the CNB forecast. The market today interpret the data so that they increase the likelihood of the need for further easing of monetary conditions in the Czech economy, which should, according to central bankers take the form of foreign exchange interventions. At current levels around 25.50 CZK / EUR, however, in our central bankers meet yet.

In Poland, Finance Minister Jacek Rostowski expressed for further easing of monetary policy by the central bank. This last week, however, came up with a surprisingly significant decrease rates by 50 bp and is now likely to take a wait and see attitude and instead will monitor how the Polish economy to lower reaction rates.

Hungarian forint investors recently wish probably because the central bank's new management team that is willing to give more support to the economy in line with the actions of the government. Not changed either express Hungarian finance minister Mihály Varga, who described the current weakening of the forint as temporary. The government would like to see a course for 285 HUF / EUR and is prepared to use its majority in the central bank to support the eventual forint.

Czech swap yield curve yesterday declined by 1 bp over the entire length. The Ministry of Finance announced that the auction will take place in April, medium and long-term bonds in the indicated volume of 9-19 billion CZK. Total in Q2 12 plans to offer in competitive rounds of auctions 50 billion CZK.

Author: Marek Dřímal

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