Investiční bankovnictví (Komerční banka)
Currencies  |  March 12, 2013 15:23:00

Central European currencies remain under pressure výprodejním

Central European currencies also weakened today under the leadership of the Hungarian forint. He is in the final weeks výprodejním under strong pressure, which is linked to the advent of the new management the central bank. Markets and raised concerns about the growing pressures to reduce the independence of the central bank. Pressure escalate today the Prime Minister Orbán, which called for further reducing interest rates.

The Hungarian forint is the worst year evolving currency region. Since mid-February, lost more than five percent. Today, the course got even reach the level of 306 HUF / EUR. Thus weak forint was recently at the beginning of last June. While the Hungarian currency today wrote off more than a quarter of a percent, the Czech currency depreciated by only half a percent when the interbank market rate climbed to 25.67 CZK / EUR. Losses zloty then today were really minimal.

Crown of course suffers from unfavorable mood in the region, but it does not help either domestic economic indicators. As early as the beginning of the week brought data showing accumulation of anti-inflationary risks - the February inflation and GDP for the final quarter of last year ended up below the CNB forecast. This implies a weaker exchange rate compared with the assumption of CNB. Recall that for the first quarter, the central bank assumes an average exchange rate of 25.50 CZK / EUR.

The area around 25.70 represents an important technical resistance. We believe that in the near future will not be easy to overcome this level. If, however, came a stronger negative pulse, is another possible depreciation of the koruna. The domestic fundamentals alone tomorrow will bring nothing major. On Thursday, statistics published in January retail sales disappoint, however, can.While the consensus envisages annual decline of 2.2% y / y after December -5.1% y / y, we are with our estimate of -4.5% y / y much more pessimistic.

Author: Jan Vejmělek

Tyto zprávy pro vás vytváří Investiční bankovnictví KB.
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