Investiční bankovnictví (Komerční banka)
Currencies  |  March 13, 2013 17:14:00

Crown in the center without significant changes (13.3.2013)


Trading on the crown to the euro was rather quiet in the middle. CZK / EUR rate varied in the range from 25.595 to 25.651. While the morning the crown rather pushed to weaker levels, in the afternoon it was exactly the opposite. In a similar spirit, traded by the Polish zloty, Hungarian forint only attributed to gains of around 0.6%. The forint, however, was only a slight correction of previous developments, it is still the Hungarian currency this week weaker by 1.8%. The forint is expressed by the Hungarian Foreign Minister Martonyi, who would like to see the currency was broadly stable. The Minister is not too happy with the fact that the currency is rather weak and Hungary has no interest in this attrition. These comments along with a selection of profits worth appreciation of the Hungarian currency.
Tomorrow, the domestic economy will see other interesting data. In particular, we are interested in retail sales, which show how households manage to hopefully deal with the last fiscal restrictions and the rising unemployment rate. The area around 25.70 CZK / EUR, however, an important technical resistance, which will be very difficult to overcome. Probably even weaker retail sales will be sufficient momentum to break this limit.
Retail sales in January should fall by 2.6% m / m (SA, WDA). Deterioration should occur at even car sales sales outside the automotive sector. In December, retailers fared, January will mean a correction.The reason for the continued fiscal consolidation (the rise in VAT and changes in income tax) and a deteriorating labor market (low wage growth and rising unemployment rate mainly). Year-by the total adjusted sales to drop by 4.5% (-4.6% y / y SA, WDA). The market expects a decrease of only 0.8% year on year (Reuters consensus).
The current account of the balance of payments in January should end up in surplus CZK 2.7 billion (-5.5 bn CZK y / y). The market is a little more optimistic, seeing a surplus of 7 billion CZK (Reuters consensus). Worsening by expecting all the components of the current account, the largest should happen to the balance of income and balance in goods.
Czech swap curve significant changes in the middle did not undergo.


Author: Jiri Skop

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