Currencies  |  March 14, 2013 12:52:15

Steroids are working, the market is in a trance

The U.S. economy is clearly starting to take up long-term cure Fed's zero rates and liquidity, which is just viewing. QE3 on the horizon limitless and no hint of its possible end, although the emphasis certainly will come with it are other recession. U.S. economy 'demonstrating performances which were the old continent can only dream. Len for March we saw an overwhelming majority of positive give and those are all data for 1Q2013, when it begins to pay a fiscal cliff. Better even though it can not. Although personal income for January fell the most since World War II, consumer trust stupa, the manufacturing sector is expanding, jobs are form over the splashing (although small firms have a problem with the loan) and crown yesterday gave unto all retail sales, which has risen far above expectations .Stocks are at historic maximách, the capital of which is directed to the bond, the economy is rozbieha (I will again increase the growth estimates for the year 2013), domestic and cross border shoppers spend jobs make up at least large companies, if you already have a small problem. Steroids are working and the Fed budemusieť will soon recognize that the economy already is not as weak as he thought before the time. If it does not knock or fiscal cliff, we've got a real economic recovery, although mainly through monetárnym steroidom. How many still keep the historically low rates? About a year or two longer than we should be (much as it did after the recession Greenspan) that have been satisfactorily nafúkla bubble (then estate) and the illusion of prosperity was at least a little while back? And now the real estate market is growing, the market constitutes a place of work, they feel rich households (though real income have lower) and can miss.Industry even extended workweek for longest since World War II, and speaks of the need for additional workers. But everyone knows that as soon as it is just a little superuvoľnená tighten monetary policy, the financial sky to the sun will come first clouds and maybe even decent wind. And an actual economic recovery is here with us, if not all provide only central bank to his stimulus.

The first graph we see the reaction of precious metals (in black) and the euro (orange), together with actions to most recent publication, mainly on U.S. data. At first glance, it is clear that the shares have the upper hand. The graph is the S & P500 (blue), and we would have beheld the eldest DJIA index, so he grows even 9 days after yourself, what did not happen 16 years. Euphoria.

On the second graph we see the evolution of shares (red) together with the development of U.S. bond yields (a white), the euro, gold, oil prices over the last year, indexing all levels of the 100th With the exception of U.S. bond yields (which means their prices drop, cast capital), and all U.S. stocks decline. It is clear Whither capital. In shares and regardless of the fact that in 1Q2013 will have lower gain than the end of 2012. They are thus increasingly more expensive.

Today nečakáme bland principal events of the economy, starting with the traditional view Debating marathon recount of the crisis, under the name of the EU Summit. Will talk to two days and at the end probably will stay quiet, which neprehluší nor any formal communiqué. Euromarazmus will continue.Tomorrow we wait consumer confidence in the U.S. by the University of Michigan for March, needless to emphasize that they are awaiting a better result than in February and will come and frustration, in actions we see a selection of revenue. Which will probably skúpený because the mood is generally good and historic high in actions so close. What will then, it is not yet incidental.

Author: Thomas Swimmer | TRIM Broker, as | Trading on exchanges TRIM Broker

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