BOSSA.CZ (BOSSA.CZ)
Markets  |  March 14, 2013 15:25:00

Afternoon Analysis EUR / USD (14.3.2013)


Number of applications for unemployment benefits fell for the third week in a row and the labor market continues to strengthen. Applications in the U.S. last shrunk by 10 000 to 332 000th season covered Economists expect growth back incorrectly to 350 000th 4-week moving average of measuring the number of applications dropped by 2,750 to a total of 346,750, which is the best result in the last 5 years. Any positive news from the labor market assures that this is not just a short-term recovery. The labor market but slowly gaining momentum, especially after NFP report from last Friday, which informed the creation of 236,000 new jobs outside the agricultural sector. The unemployment rate in February managed to shrink to 7.7 percent. Another indicator showed that producer prices in the United States in February rose the most in five months due to a sharp increase in gasoline prices.

Brussels has today launched a two-day summit of European leaders. The main topic will be the budgetary policy and negotiations for France, Spain and Portugal, countries that, most likely will need to extend the deadline to meet the deficit targets. The word should also get topics about employment. In Europe, the latest results of the 27 million people without work, ie 11 percent of the population of working age. Extreme problems with the labor market has in Greece, Spain and Italy, where one young person can not find a job.

Economists warn this issue very strongly. If there is no quick solution to the problem, Europe will feel the effects for a few more years. Some analysts even addressing high unemployment makes the survival of the common currency.Deepening social inequality in the euro area, it can lead to major unrest. European politicians want to give priority to solving the problem with young people. EU plans to invest over the next 7 years, 6 billion euros to boost employment. Despite the fact that this is a very welcome step, it seems as unconvincing, because in terms of unemployed young people, it is an investment of € 100 per person.

Board of Governors member Nowotny said today that the ECB now need to lower interest rates. GDP common monetary union could put into motion in the second half of this year. The ECB therefore now monitors the development of GDP, though admits that the growth potential among members is significantly different due to structural problems of some member countries both in financial terms and in the real economy.

Currency pair EUR / USDremains firmly in a downward trend channel and bears holds control over the market. The market expects a very early test of fire, she will have to test the Fibonacci levels of 50 of the daily chart. There might appear more resistance before the next bull sale. However Eurodollars remains in a downward trend and thus puncture Reviews Support this remains unlikely.

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Odpolední analýza EUR/USD (14.12.2013)

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