Investiční bankovnictví (Komerční banka)
Currencies  |  March 15, 2013 16:00:00

Forint near ten-month lows


Last week was the central foreign exchange markets in the sign of the continued weakening of the forint, which is partly reflected in the losses of the Czech koruna, Polish zloty respectively. While the Hungarian currency during the week lost almost two percent and reached to its weakest level in nearly 10 months, the loss of the Czech crown to fit in a single percent weakening of the zloty was minimal. Strong fire-sale pressure associated with the onset of the new management the central bank. Markets and raised concerns about the growing tendency to limit the independence of the central bank. Adding further fuel to the fire during the week Prime Minister Orbán, which called for further reducing interest rates.

Crown did not benefit during the week published macroeconomic data. While still at the very beginning of the week, the course still found under 25.40 CZK / EUR in the middle of the week, a course given at your level of 25.70 CZK / EUR. Its climbing course but this time not even try, in the second half of the week we then witnessed stabilization above the 25.50 CZK / EUR. Published economic indicators confirmed our fears that the Czech economy will be the beginning of a new year to deal with the recession, which has struggled with throughout the year 2012, which was confirmed by the published GDP figures for the final quarter of last year. January retail sales figures did not end as badly as we and other market players expect, but it is clear that domestic demand remains weak.And unfortunately, due to the recession in the euro zone and weaker foreign demand, which was confirmed this morning released the January industrial production data.

Entering the new year was not spectacular, basically Czech industry continued to poor results at the end of last year. While weak domestic demand, the Czech industry has been living for many quarters, the deepening recession in the euro area at the end of last year, including a decline in the German activities of the Czech industry numbers starting to show now. And unfortunately for us gets into trouble the automobile industry, which was confirmed in January Czech data. The decline in industrial production in the automotive sector at 8.6% y / y meant strongest contribution (-1.5 of a percentage point) to the overall decline in the January industries. The automotive industry difficulties, however, attaches and other related industries.Registered a decline in production of rubber and plastic products (-6.1% y / y), and decreased the production and distribution of electricity, gas and heat (-3.3% y / y). On the contrary, quite good growth momentum, the production of food products (5.4% y / y), manufacture of beverages (9.8% y / y) and other manufacturing (6.4%). This may indicate that in the light of a slight increase in consumer confidence that extremely weak household consumption due to suppressed demand begins to reflect from the bottom.

The koruna is located on the values, that can be currently satisfied with the central bank. Looking at the exchange rate in the last few weeks is a clear stabilization of exchange rate developments in the wider band 25.20 / 30 to 25.70 CZK / EUR. So around the 25.50 level that is expected by the central bank as the average for the first quarter.Given that the upcoming week no more important indicators bring home, it is unlikely that the exchange rate band left. Kurzotvorným main factor will be for the next days the mood in the whole Central European region in the light of developments in the global financial markets.

Author: Jan Vejmělek

Tyto zprávy pro vás vytváří Investiční bankovnictví KB.
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