Jan Hřebíček (Kurzy.cz)
Currencies  |  March 17, 2013 17:53:47

EU on Saturday decided on the fate of the euro area


Eurozone finance ministers on Saturday early morning agreed to a rescue package for Cyprus. This awaited event was accompanied by totally unexpected and unprecedented condition single tax deposits in Cypriot banks 9.9% for deposits over € 100,000 and 6.75% for deposits below. According to the head of the Eurogroup, the Dutch Minister of Finance Jeroen Dijsselbloema, this is a one-off measure, which applies only to Cyprus.

Ministers and sent to depositors across Europe unequivocal message: "Your deposits are not safe if they are stored in banks of Member States confronted with financial difficulties."What this simple and clear communication causes? Even the biggest optimists who thought that the disintegration of the euro area and the" překolkování "their euros for drachmas, lire or pesetas can not happen and you can feel free to leave the euro deposited in the banks of Greece, Italy and Spain, must inevitably come to the conclusion that they were wrong.'s signal is clear, all euro transfer to Germany!

What will be the outcome of this "event"? The first possibility is that the heads of state and Government of the EU on Monday say "stop, that's nonsense, something like that eurozone finance ministers had not mandate such interference EU single market and the euro without burying us must do" and the Cypriot parliament described above monetary reform or accept.This scenario is very unlikely, however, given that the European leaders in recent years not only do not know what to do next in the case of the single market for banking services and the single European currency, but do not even know what actually is.

It can be expected that the implementation of the decisions of ministers eurozone occur. Following will be a permanent and irreversible outflow of deposits from eurozone countries hit by the debt crisis, mainly to Germany, which will be significantly more powerful than ever, and the consequent further deterioration of the financial situation of these countries and their banking sector. There will be more and more night summits of EU leaders receiving more and more crisis scenarios. Euro ceases to have the ability in some countries to fulfill the role of currency, because what ever flows logically can not simultaneously Intangible circulate without someone constantly fanned.

And will just wait for it to one of the large countries in trouble first she says, "does not necessarily need another currency, so you'll print it." A small country that she probably will not, will not want to let myself fall ire large that she gave "bursting floodgates" and the disintegration of the euro area. At the moment seems to be a big favorite of Italy, but Spain had a lot of breathing on the back and a dark horse in this race is undoubtedly France.

It remains to the last question, eurozone ministers decided to unknowingly or intentionally? The correct answer is probably both, some unconsciously, some deliberately, some probably even unconsciously part of his team and part deliberately. Eurozone situation is so serious because of its fate and free solvable, that the sooner this happens the better.And if you find some "small mistake", which inevitably causes decay, it will generally akceptovatelnější than if they so chose top EU summit with the participation of Heads of State and Government.




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