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Macroeconomics  |  March 19, 2013 11:00:00

UK inflation worries, the German ZEW index pleasantly surprised


iPoint.cz Inflation in Britain reached a peak in February 9měsíčního and again has opened an opportunity for discussion, whether it is a good idea to increase the monetary stimulus of the economy. Consumer Price Index (CPI) in February increased by 2.8 percent, after the October held steady at 2.7 percent. The February increase was due to the increase in the cost of fuel and electricity.

Last month, the central bank released the UK (BoE) economic forecast, which assumes inflation above 2 percent until 2016. Long-term growth should energy prices and fees for tuition.Even in the short term is expected to overcome three percent inflation rate, due to increased prices for imported goods, which causes a weakening pound.

Keeping BoE has between political strife and unable to agree on the future. Part of the stimulus supports increase from the current L 375 billion to support the economy, which threatens to lapse into a recession and the rest is afraid of a negative impact on inflation. BoE Governor Mervyn King, together with two members of the board supports the increased monetary intervention by the central bank. Prices of production materials rose mom measurement most since April 2011, when the went up by 0.8 percent. The growth was due to the increased price of crude oil, which rose in February by 7.1 percent.

German ZEW indicator of economic sentiment has now reached maximum 3ročníhoEurope and gives hope for a better tomorrow. Economic Sentiment Index, which predicts 6-month German economic future, rose to 48.5 points from 48.2 points in February. This center is the best result since April 2010. Economists expected a drop to 48.1 points.

German Central Bank expects growth of the German economy in the second quarter, after the last quarter of 2012 slowed to 0.6 percent. Business confidence has grown, but still a black cloud over Europe as Cyprus, Spain, Italy or even Greece.

Currency pair EUR / GBP still does not respond to a positive result in Germany and does not even attempt to close yesterday's GAP. Found a strong resistance between 23.6 Fibonacci level and the price of 0.86. As long as price stays below a downward trend line, it's negative outlook and is expected to reach initial lows.

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Británii trápí inflace, německý index ZEW příjemně překvapil

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