Investiční bankovnictví (Komerční banka)
Currencies  |  March 20, 2013 07:31:00

Uncertainty about the situation in Cyprus clotting euro

Euro against the dollar yesterday fell to fresh three-month minimum. While the whole process of European session, the exchange rate held steady around $ 1.2950 level / EUR, in the late afternoon, the common European currency started to sink to the level of 1.2850 USD / EUR.

Euro paid for a further escalation of uncertainty associated with the situation in Cyprus. During the day, namely the news came that the Cypriot president is still trying to change the proposed law on the taxation of bank deposits in the sense that did not fare so heavily on small depositors, and the president has thus gained for the design of a majority in Parliament. In the early evening, the Cypriot Parliament said NO clear the Savings and threw the whole rescue plan so appointed late last week to the trash. This began to spread rumors that the Cypriot Finance Minister ends.Cyprus to face a real risk of bankruptcy and negotiations on how to get out of it are again at the beginning. Moreover it is not clear when the Cypriot banks are opened because there is a real danger of a run on banks. The ECB has tonight announced that the banking system will provide the necessary liquidity to existing rules.

The threat of contagion effect on other European markets and thus increases the euro falls. So everyone will be curious to see how the situation stands as Europe's leaders and the situation will continue in the next few hours to develop. In this unfavorable situation will undoubtedly be interesting what will happen tomorrow's auction of Spanish government bonds (maturing in 2015, 2018 and 2023).

A key event today is the height of a two-day meeting of U.S. central bankers. As for interest rates, it is clear that, from this point of view, no action at all. Central bankers clearly declared that the period of zero interest rates will last as long as the unemployment rate drops below 6.5% until inflation expectations in the two-year horizon, not scale above 2.5%. The problem is that so far transparent central bankers were at when to terminate the third round of QE. And from this perspective, we could not wait any newspaper. The timing of the completion of the "printing money" is crucial for the U.S. dollar. Printing money is acting in the direction of weakening or inhibiting its pronounced strengthening.

Author: Jan Vejmělek

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