HighSky (HighSky)
Currencies  |  March 20, 2013 12:11:00

10y T-Note focuses attention on the Fed from Cyprus


Futures contract for 10-year T-Note descends 0.1% d / d to 131.4. The bond market does not comply with other financial markets higher in response to the Cypriot parliament to reject bailout of the financial sector of the country. Rejection of a non-standard solution, however, is finding other ways to address and extend generally for markets daunting uncertainty.

The market today will also include monitoring the decisions of the Fed's main interest rate (19.00 CET), the weight of the decision adds a simultaneous publication of projections of the economy and interest rates, and the main press conference to Fed Chairman Bernanke's decision (19.30 CET). Fed in recent weeks tried to pacify rather justifiably turbulent market expectations that the central bank will be the market-friendly policies ultramonetární reduce significantly earlier than previously expected.The anticipation arose after the minutes of the meeting of the main interest rate of 11 to 12 December. The document brought a big surprise in the form of opinion shift members of the executive body. Information from the economy in the meantime since last winter session of the main interest rate in December and January indicated a further improvement in the labor market and economic performance, which could be felt in the form of new economic projections, according to which the Fed waits enhance economic performance. On the other hand, further escalation of the tension of the situation in Europe, which takes into account the Fed significantly in their views and efforts to protect the most favorable financial conditions still prevent the Fed once again to talk about something other than the continuation of the current rate ultraexpanzivní monetary policy. That should calm volatile financial markets.

Market in recent weeks has created a new 11-month minimum 130.0, which confirms the downward trend continued 3/4letního with important support zone 130.0 130.2 131.1 vanguard and support. Trend targets the 127.7. Resistance band are 132.3 132.5 and 132.9 with possible further milestone resistance 134.3.

10ytnote, daily comment

Commodity markets, especially the gold market long benefited from a lot of commitment and consistency assertions long ultraexpanzivní Fed monetary policy and expectations are very favorable financial conditions. These beliefs and expectations, due to uncertainties in the global economy, however, can still fulfill the market's confidence at the beginning of the publication of the minutes of the Fed's key interest rate 11 to 12December as a bolt from heaven serious flaws. For markets to shock major cognition shift, that the Fed among some members of the body výkoného significantly strengthen the view reduction of monetary expansion as early as this year! Certainly not this year at least noting trading on financial markets even if the Fed tried in the weeks to assure a preference for existing current course of monetary policy and of very favorable monetary conditions in the following years (statement and write the January decision on key interest rate or the performance and presentation of monthly reports monetary policy, Fed Chairman Bernanke to Congress in February) with an effort to dampen adjustment markets. Markets and feel that change the course of monetary policy may come much sooner than it seemed a few weeks ago.The last straw yet bitter liquor for the market over the last expectation of better economic news.

Josef Kvarda
Analyst
HighSky Brokers

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