Investiční bankovnictví (Komerční banka)
Currencies  |  March 22, 2013 08:18:00

Negotiations on Cyprus salvation no clearer conclusions

Recent developments in the European financial markets, the euro certainly do not help. Euro during today's morning trading, hovering around the boundaries 1.29 USD / EUR. Correction of euro losses can be expected only when we manage to find a solution to the Cyprus situation for which raise their hand as representatives of the Eurogroup and the Cypriot Parliament. The important word in the negotiations will naturally also the IMF and the ECB.

ECB during yesterday increased pressure on Cyprus, stating that the funds flowing through the island state standard program ELA (Emergency Liquidity Assistance) will be available in Cyprus to 25 March. Will then determine whether the politicians agree on measures that would again lead to solvency Cypriot banks. If not, stop 9mld. lines from the ECB would be a first step towards the collapse of the entire banking sector and to leave the eurozone.

After yesterday's negotiations on the table outlined a new plan, which should consist of national solidarity fund and the idea of ??the division of banks into good and bad. They should be guaranteed deposits of up to 100 thousand. EUR, however deposits above this level would be subject to taxation. Cyprus is trying to agree on a loan from Russia, but it will lead to further indebtedness Cyprus. Troika representatives require total debt to a maximum of 100% of GDP in 2020, but in the case of Greece, the initial requirement is set at 120% of GDP, so the question is whether the ECB, IMF and the eurozone will ultimately benevolent. Today should Cypriot Parliament will vote on legislation to restructure the bank and controls on capital flows. It should also be judged Three new plan. If the end of today's meeting have been successfully completed over the weekend by the Eurogroup to approve rescue program for Cyprus.

Blow below the belt the European currency were also published yesterday leading indicators in the euro area. On the contrary, the opposite side of the Atlantic came a number of positive numbers, confirming that the world's largest economy is gaining strength.

The combination of all these events supports the further decline of the USD / EUR. For today's numbers will be interesting German Ifo index at which expectations are also set to rise further. But if the situation repeats from yesterday and comes disappointment, euro losses deepen. The eyes of investors will be fixed on the Cyprus negotiations rescue. If it is not even clear on Monday, the uncertainty in the financial markets will be extended and the euro could enter into a new week atakováním 4měsíčního its lows against the dollar.

Author: Miroslav Frayer

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