Vladimír Urbánek (Kurzy.cz)
Macroeconomics  |  March 28, 2013 14:39:58

U.S. - final revision improved GDP growth in 4Q12 up to +0.4%, but market expected to improve to 0.5%


The U.S. Commerce Department today released the final revision of GDP growth in Q4 of last year. According to the GDP of the world's largest economy ended last year, a growth of 0.4% compared to the pre-estimated growth of 0.1%, which was the very first reading as an estimated decrease of 0.1%. Growth in the revision primarily reflects revised higher growth in business investment and a smaller trade deficit.

In 3Q12 GDP grew by 3.1%. The decline in performance in 4Q bejvětší decline was mainly due to military spending since the end of the Vietnam War in 1972.

The market for the final revision of the estimated GDP growth down to 0.5% in the overall estimates range from +0.1 to +0.8%.

For the full year 2012 the U.S. economy grew by 2.2% compared to 1.8% in 2011.

Corporate investment in Q4 grew in the final year of 16.7% compared to pre-estimated 5.8%. Corporate investment, including software grew by 11.8% compared to a decline of 2.6% in 3Q. Investment to total GDP contributed 0.82 percentage points. Expenditures or investments in real estate grew by 17.6% compared to 13.5% in 3Q.
The deficit of the trade balance U.S. 4Q mld.USD fell to 384.7 against 395.2 billion from 3Q. Reducing the deficit has contributed to the overall balance, GDP growth 0.33 percentage points compared to 0.24 points in the forecast.
Consumer spending, which is 70% of the largest growth engine in 4Q12 grew by 1.8% compared to pre-estimated growth of 2.1%.
Stocks dropped significantly from 60.3 mld.USD in Q3 to 13.3 billion USD in Q4. Development of stocks decreased overall outcome for GDP by 1,52 percentage points.
Government spending fell to its decline by 22.1% of the final GDP by 1.4 percentage points.

Analysts on average estimate that U.S. Q1 GDP will grow by 2%.


The final revision of GDP also offered the first data on the development of corporate profitability in 4Q12. It is expected to grow by 2.3% compared with 2.4% in 3Q12. During 4Q11 corporate profits grew at an average of 3.1%.

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US - finální revize vylepšila růst HDP ve 4Q12 až na +0,4%, trh ale čekal zlepšení až na +0,5%

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