Investiční bankovnictví (Komerční banka)
Currencies  |  March 29, 2013 16:02:00

Resistance 25.80 CZK / EUR should prevent further losses in the crown

Czech crown during the week hovered near levels 24.80 CZK / EUR. Even in Friday trading too different from previous days when the rate CZK / EUR held within a relatively narrow range from 25.73 to 25.80 with a tendency to slightly down. No major changes this week traded the Polish zloty, the only currency in the profits and the Hungarian forint, which increased by approximately 1%. Forint session helped the central bank cut its key rate by 25 bps. Some market players, however, have speculated on the significant decline.
Level of 24.80 CZK / EUR appears to be relatively strong resistance and overcome it would require major disappointment from the domestic economy and escalating debt crisis in the EMU.The koruna around 24.50 CZK / EUR central bankers prefer, from this point of view would be to keep the crown in the band 25.30 to 25.80 CZK / EUR. Since we are now in the upper part of the band, from a technical perspective, there is rather a downward movement. Data published in the next week should be sufficient, to the upper edge of the band came under significant pressure. As is becoming increasingly clear that central bankers would start directly intervene in the market only if the threat of a deflationary spiral. On the course or prognosis of our current data do not show.
On Tuesday, we will see the publication of the domestic economy, industrial PMI index for March, which would, according to our forecast to climb above the level of 50 points, ending zone expansion.More interesting, however, will be Thursday's retail sales for February, which are expected to decrease by 3.1% year on year. Retail sales should fall in February by 0.4% m / m (SA, WDA) due to lower sales of cars. December last year was a successful month for retailers. However, the deterioration in the beginning of this year was to be expected due to continued fiscal consolidation (the rise in VAT and changes in income tax), and aggravating the labor market (low wage growth and rising unemployment rate mainly).

Author: Jiri Skop

Tyto zprávy pro vás vytváří Investiční bankovnictví KB.
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