Investiční bankovnictví (Komerční banka)
Currencies  |  April 02, 2013 16:40:00

The crown fell against the euro to 9-month base

Crown entered the second quarter with a relatively deep losses against the euro, while at the same time losing nearly twenty cents. Today, most expensive one euro on the interbank market sold for 25.95 crowns. The slowdown were no specific message, rather it was a combination of several factors. (1) Leading indicator PMI fell deeper than pointing consensus, and shows that the recovery of the Czech economy will be very fickle. (2) From the current development of other regional currencies shows that traders were especially interested in the Hungarian forint, which is to their profits around half percent of the most successful currency. Long positions in the forint were partly financed Czech currency, which contributed to the weakening of the crown. (3) The upcoming dividend season could, to some extent, also play a role. (4) CZK / EUR repeatedly attacked the area below 25.90 resistance.Its present upward movement influenced the set stop-loss orders, which realized losses of the domestic currency magnified. Crown and ultimately lost more than half a percent. At the end of the trading day was at the limit of 25.90 CZK / EUR.

From the perspective of technical analysis will be interesting if the course closes above this level at the end of the week. If so, it would be an impetus for the further advancement of the course. Another strong area of ??resistance is around the peak of October 2009, the band 26.50 / 63rd

The swap and bond market today, there was still a festive mood. Yield curve remained unchanged. Development or affect data on the state budget at the end of March, which ended in a surprising surplus of 14 billion CZK. The reason according to the Ministry of Finance was higher VAT income, which grew by a quarter, and efficient tax administration.Total revenues were higher year on year by 13.3%, expenditure has slightly dropped by 0.8%. For the first three months of last year to farm state with a deficit of 22.7 billion CZK.

Statistical Office reported also by the entire public sector last year. Public deficit last year was 4.4% of GDP, total government debt, then climbed to 45.8% from 40.8% of GDP in 2011. For this year, we expect a deficit of 3.0% and growth in the debt 48.5%.

Author: Miroslav Frayer

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