Investiční bankovnictví (Komerční banka)
Currencies  |  April 03, 2013 15:33:00

The crown has now bounced back from a nine-month low

Czech koruna today easily corrected its previous losses, if at the end of yesterday's session rate CZK / EUR climbed above 25.90 and the Czech currency and attacked its weakest level in nine months. Already this morning's opening course was located just below the 25.90 CZK / EUR and over the course level is now getting. On the contrary, during the day shifted towards 25.80 CZK / EUR. Assessing crown and reached approximately one-third percent. The strengthening was evident even today in the Hungarian forint, but he ultimately their profits in the afternoon erased. The same was true for the Polish zloty.

While today was from the perspective of domestic fundamentals uninteresting, tomorrow brings the February retail sales statistics. We expect that retail sales would be recorded in February -0.4% m / m (SA, WDA), mainly due to lower sales of cars.Even retailers for December was relatively successful. However, with the new year is expected deterioration in the retail market due to continued fiscal consolidation (the rise in VAT and changes in income tax), and aggravating the labor market (low wage growth and rising unemployment rate mainly). In annual terms, the total adjusted sales to drop by 3.1% y / y (respectively 0.4% y / y SA, WDA). In comparison with the market consensus (-2.0% y / y), we therefore pessimists.

If retail sales by our estimates really disappoint, it will confirm the weakness of domestic demand. Given that the central bank has no chance of its interest policy to support domestic demand, as the key rate is essentially at zero, sensitive to negative domestic data should stay rate of the Czech currency.From a technical point of view it will be important to watch the fight on the resistance area around 25.90 CZK / EUR.

Author: Jan Vejmělek

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Koruna se dnes odrazila od devítiměsíčního minima

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