HighSky (HighSky)
Currencies  |  April 04, 2013 11:46:00

Just be forfeited after the announcement of quantitative and qualitative monetary expansion

Only the dollar falls by 2.6% d / d to 95.5 after the announcement the Japanese central bank quantitative and qualitative expansion of monetary policy to achieve the objective of 2.0% inflation. The expansion will take the form of a time control and the expansion of monetary base. The fight will also reinforce the purchase of Japanese government bonds, particularly with longer maturities.

Market in recent weeks after overcoming an important zone of resistance 94.5 95.0 yet confirmed the current six-month growth trend. Perhaps it can be a complex extensive formation of significant peak before the expected significant correction and conditioning extremely překoupeného weekly RSI. The main resistance are 95.7, 96.1 and 96.7 with the long-term objectives: 100.1 and 101.5. The main aids are 94.3, 92.5, 91.9 and 90.9 to 91.0 range.

USDJPY Daily comment

The market today is attentive also in connection with the performance of Fed Chairman Bernanke on the economy (16.30 CET). In recent Fed speeches rather ultraexpanzivní confirmed continuation of the monetary policy. It can be assumed that performance will not be with the previous rhetoric in contrast mainly due to reports of ongoing eurozone debt crisis and the last inconclusive information economy.

Bond and commodity markets, especially the gold market but also a long-term dollar benefited from a lot of commitment and consistency assertions long ultraexpanzivní Fed monetary policy and expectations are very favorable financial conditions.These beliefs and expectations, due to uncertainties in the global economy, however, can still fulfill the market's confidence at the beginning of the publication of the minutes of the Fed's key interest rate 11 to Dec. 12 as a bolt from heaven serious flaws. For markets to shock major cognition shift, that the Fed among some members of the body výkoného significantly strengthen the view reduction of monetary expansion as early as this year! Certainly not this year at least noting trading on financial markets even if the Fed tried in the weeks to assure a preference for existing current course of monetary policy and of very favorable monetary conditions in the following years (statement and write the January decision on key interest rate or the performance and presentation of monthly reports monetary policy, Fed Chairman Bernanke to Congress in February) and pacifying legitimatelyturbulent market expectations with an effort to dampen their adaptation. Continuing soothing doctrine also recorded a further escalation of the tension of the situation in Europe, which takes into account the Fed significantly in their views. Markets, however, feel that the change of the course of monetary policy may come much sooner than it seemed a few weeks ago. The last straw yet bitter liquor for the bond market over the last expectation of better economic news and the labor market.

Josef Kvarda
HighSky Brokers

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Jen propadá po ohlášení kvantitativní a kvalitativní monetární expanze

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