Investiční bankovnictví (Komerční banka)
Currencies  |  April 04, 2013 16:30:00

Today strengthen Czech koruna, Polish zloty and Hungarian forint

Czech koruna today further strengthened slightly from its nine-month lows, which reached Tuesday. During today's session saw gains of 0.2% and in the afternoon on the interbank market traded around 25.80 CZK / EUR. Czech currency is not significantly react to the publication of data on retail in February, or the Czech 52-week T-bill auction.

February's retail sales statistics did not confirm the favorable data from January. In the second month of this year, retailers' sales fell by 4.7% y / y, which is much worse than our most pessimistic estimate showed on the market. To a certain extent, for such a deep slump is different number of calendar days as compared to last February, but even after adjusting for this effect we observed a decline of 1.7%.In a monthly comparison, they fell by 1.3% (sa). The breakdown of the annual growth rate shows that the decline has signed as the automotive segment (-2.2 pp) and the retail sector (-2.5 pp). A slight recovery in consumption is expected in the second half of this year. Prospects for retailers and are not always rosy and we fear that this year their sales decrease. For the full year we expect a decrease of 0.8%.

The Hungarian forint and Polish zloty strengthened today as well. Both the overall regional currencies during today ascribed to around 0.2%. The Hungarian forint responded to published actions of the central bank to encourage lending and reduce business debt in foreign currencies. The central bank (MNB) as governor Matolcsyho uses 3 billionEUR from its reserves to help small and medium size businesses with debt denominated in EUR or CHF, whose repayment after a significant weakening of the forint has become problematic. According to him, the project is based on the "Funding for Lending" Bank of England. Announcement confirmed speculation that the new Governor Matolcsy, an ally of Prime Minister Orbán's central bank to pull campaigns pro-growth measures.

Tomorrow we will see in the region prior information about the Hungarian industrial production in February. According to the market consensus that the industry should fail by 0.9% y / y (WDA). Czech National Bank also publish a record of its March monetary meeting.

Czech swap yield curve today fell by 3.5 bp along its entire length. Ministry of Finance of the Czech Republic sold at auction 52-week Treasury bills, 10 billion CZK. The average auction yield was 0.16%.

Author: Jana Malíčková

Tyto zprávy pro vás vytváří Investiční bankovnictví KB.
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Dnes posílily česká koruna, polský zlotý i maďarský forint

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