Investiční bankovnictví (Komerční banka)
Currencies  |  April 05, 2013 16:30:00

Crown ends the first week of April at zero

Eventually crown in the second half of the week erased its earlier losses and at the end of Friday's trading hovered just above 25.70 CZK / EUR. The first week of April and closes at similar levels as before Easter. During Friday's session itself was very low trading activity. The difference between the lowest and highest zobchodovaným rate on the interbank market was nearly seven cents.

Against the dollar, however, crown earlier today scored relatively high profits when the dollar on global markets lose against most world currencies due to significantly worse data from the U.S. labor market. One dollar and can be bought at 19.80 crowns.

Minutes of the last meeting of the central bank did not bring anything new. From this it is clear that the current CNB sees economic activity as more subdued and active anti-inflationary. Risks are under the direction needs moderately relaxed monetary conditions in the forecast horizon. At the same time it was said that the recovery in the domestic economy may occur later due to higher confidence in the offshore financial sector.

In the current macroeconomic picture would not change anything in the next week or published macroeconomic data. Already this week, the statistics of retail sales confirmed that consumer demand remains weak. One reason is the unfavorable situation on the domestic labor market. In the next week we will see the unemployment rate for March. Although the unemployment rate to fall to 8.0% from 8.1% in February, after seasonal adjustment, we should record its rise.The weakness of domestic demand also reveal information about the rate of inflation. The corrected component should continue to hold in the red. Overall annual inflation should then slow further to 1.6%.

Industrial production negatively affects the automotive sector, in which the apparent downward trend in the number of registrations in Germany and throughout the euro area. On the other hand, however, the situation gradually improves our nevýznamnějšího business partner. In monthly comparison, we were able to wait at least a slight growth (sa, WDA). However, we estimate industry year on year with a fall of 6.5% (3.2%, sa, WDA). Deterioration in the automotive sector should be reflected in the development of foreign trade.

In comparison with the consensus estimates, our pessimistic. I expect the inflation rate by one tenth lower than the market. If our predictions come true, they would rather push indicators published in weakening the crown. From a technical perspective, the rate CZK / EUR now in support 25.68 / 75 that probably will prevent the next course in a downward motion. Rather, it is entirely possible that the rate of this support is reflected again and again test the resistance at 25.90.

Author: Miroslav Frayer

Tyto zprávy pro vás vytváří Investiční bankovnictví KB.
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