Investiční bankovnictví (Komerční banka)
Currencies  |  April 08, 2013 08:23:00

The dollar lost in response to data from the labor market

Euro during the previous week against the dollar solidified by about one percent and is now the currency pair USD / EUR trades slightly below 1.30. For euro gains was mainly the development at the end of the week. Data from the U.S. labor market is favorable after a series of disappointing numbers. The economy has created only 88 thousand. new jobs, while the expectations pointing to 200 thousand. Worse data we have seen across the economy. Although at first glance it may sounds positively fall in unemployment to 7.6%, it is necessary to say that the main reason is the decline in the participation rate. In other words, they were excluded from statistics on long-term unemployed. It thus seems that the series better indicators of the United States does not continue, which may be associated with fiscal consolidation, which in the coming weeks or months will reflect on the worst indicators.It should, however, be a permanent condition, since the second half of the year, investors could again look forward to better data. For this reason, so do not expect a turning trend in USD / EUR and still this year we see the potential for dollar gains.

And because of disappointing U.S. labor market will be this week the most interesting track data on retail sales and Michigan consumer confidence, which will be published at the very end of the week. Up to Wednesday's minutes of the last Fed meeting (March 19 to 20) will be released rather secondary data. In addition, President Barack Obama will present the financial plan for fiscal 2014, which is based on both the spending cuts and the tax increases. It will be especially important as the design-build republicans.

In Europe, the macroeconomic calendar primarily on industrial production. During the week we will see the numbers for individual countries, of which Germany and France would be by consensus record monthly rise in Italy or Spain would continue to be continued unfavorable situation. On Friday it will be published complete data for the euro area. Estimates colleagues from Société Générale are much more pessimistic, especially when even the largest European economy expected monthly decline.

Risks worse data so we can see on both sides of the Atlantic. This constellation would not give a new impetus to the markets trend. In terms of technical analysis, USD / EUR rate was slightly corrected to the level of 1295, but since this limit should bounce towards 1.31.

Author: Miroslav Frayer

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