Vladimír Urbánek (Kurzy.cz)
World markets  |  April 08, 2013 10:25:23

Alcoa Result NaCN next roundabout - the end of a legend? The ability to predict the overall development decreases

World hliníkářská leader, Alcoa today, as usual, will launch another Result carousel, this time therefore for 1Q 2013th Ability of the results presage the overall development in recent times is significantly reduced. From 2002 to 2011, this coherence is very close when the S & P 500 grew by an average of 2.5%, when the company surpassed earnings expectations. When the company lagged behind the S & P estimates grew by only 0.5%. In 2011, this unique series was interrupted because the S & P index rose by more than 3%, even though their company results lagged behind estimates and its shares fell more markedly. Since then, the relationship is not so clear, since the S & P rose by an average of 3% at overcoming market expectations and one decreased by 0.5%. Many title Portfolio Manager has not considered so important and accurate "litmus test" of the next earnings season.

Alcoa is unlike other large mining and processing company with diversified production often very narrowly focused on the extraction and processing of bauxite and the subsequent production of aluminum. When demand decreases, in this particular segemntu not able to compensate for any decrease in the other ingredients. Demand for aluminum is currently dampened by weaker demand major traditional customer sectors and overall overproduction.

Alcoa is based on the Dow Jones since 1959 and is now a board member with the smallest weight in this index, when it is only 0.4%. For comparison, for example, Chevron is 6.4% and 11% full IBM.
Alcoa in 2002 became the most valuable processing companies. Since then, its market capitalization fell by 74% to about 9 mld.USD.Number of large institutional investors during the past 10 years decreased by 47%. In 2002, held in their portfolios shares for 100 mill.USD and over 390 full Portfolio Manager. Currently it is only around 208th

Company threatens to Moody's corporate bond rating reduced to speculative framework.

New "litmus test" is now in the eyes of analysts such as IBM, according to the statistics, if the results exceed estimates, the entire positive earnings season in full 75% of cases.

For 1Q13 analysts generally expect profits decline by about 1.8%. at the end of January, still numbered with growth of 1.2%. Alcoy is expected from a profit of 8 cents per share versus 10 cents in 1Q12.
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